Prediction of enteric methane production, yield and intensity of beef cattle using an intercontinental database

Henk J. van Lingen*, Mutian Niu, Ermias Kebreab, Sebastião C. Valadares Filho, John A. Rooke, Carol Anne Duthie, Angela Schwarm, Michael Kreuzer, Phil I. Hynd, Mariana Caetano, Maguy Eugène, Cécile Martin, Mark McGee, Padraig O'Kiely, Martin Hünerberg, Tim A. McAllister, Telma T. Berchielli, Juliana D. Messana, Nico Peiren, Alex V. Chaves & 14 others Ed Charmley, N.A. Cole, Kristin E. Hales, Sang Suk Lee, Alexandre Berndt, Christopher K. Reynolds, Les A. Crompton, Ali R. Bayat, David R. Yáñez-Ruiz, Zhongtang Yu, André Bannink, Jan Dijkstra, David P. Casper, Alexander N. Hristov

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Enteric methane (CH4) production attributable to beef cattle contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions. Reliably estimating this contribution requires extensive CH4 emission data from beef cattle under different management conditions worldwide. The objectives were to: 1) predict CH4 production (g d−1 animal−1), yield [g (kg dry matter intake; DMI)−1] and intensity [g (kg average daily gain)−1] using an intercontinental database (data from Europe, North America, Brazil, Australia and South Korea); 2) assess the impact of geographic region, and of higher- and lower-forage diets. Linear models were developed by incrementally adding covariates. A K-fold cross-validation indicated that a CH4 production equation using only DMI that was fitted to all available data had a root mean square prediction error (RMSPE; % of observed mean) of 31.2%. Subsets containing data with ≥25% and ≤18% dietary forage contents had an RMSPE of 30.8 and 34.2%, with the all-data CH4 production equation, whereas these errors decreased to 29.3 and 28.4%, respectively, when using CH4 prediction equations fitted to these subsets. The RMSPE of the ≥25% forage subset further decreased to 24.7% when using multiple regression. Europe- and North America-specific subsets predicted by the best performing ≥25% forage multiple regression equation had RMSPE of 24.5 and 20.4%, whereas these errors were 24.5 and 20.0% with region-specific equations, respectively. The developed equations had less RMSPE than extant equations evaluated for all data (22.5 vs. 23.2%), for higher-forage (21.2 vs. 23.1%), but not for the lower-forage subsets (28.4 vs. 27.9%). Splitting the dataset by forage content did not improve CH4 yield or intensity predictions. Predicting beef cattle CH4 production using energy conversion factors, as applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, indicated that adequate forage content-based and region-specific energy conversion factors improve prediction accuracy and are preferred in national or global inventories.

Original languageEnglish
Article number106575
JournalAgriculture, Ecosystems and Environment
Volume283
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2019

Fingerprint

methane production
beef cattle
forage
methane
prediction
energy conversion
multiple regression
specific energy
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
South Korea
greenhouse gas emissions
average daily gain
dry matter intake
dry matter
greenhouse gas
linear models
climate change
diet
fold
Brazil

Keywords

  • Dietary variables
  • Empirical modeling
  • Forage content
  • Geographical region
  • Methane emission

Cite this

van Lingen, H. J., Niu, M., Kebreab, E., Valadares Filho, S. C., Rooke, J. A., Duthie, C. A., ... Hristov, A. N. (2019). Prediction of enteric methane production, yield and intensity of beef cattle using an intercontinental database. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 283, [106575]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2019.106575
van Lingen, Henk J. ; Niu, Mutian ; Kebreab, Ermias ; Valadares Filho, Sebastião C. ; Rooke, John A. ; Duthie, Carol Anne ; Schwarm, Angela ; Kreuzer, Michael ; Hynd, Phil I. ; Caetano, Mariana ; Eugène, Maguy ; Martin, Cécile ; McGee, Mark ; O'Kiely, Padraig ; Hünerberg, Martin ; McAllister, Tim A. ; Berchielli, Telma T. ; Messana, Juliana D. ; Peiren, Nico ; Chaves, Alex V. ; Charmley, Ed ; Cole, N.A. ; Hales, Kristin E. ; Lee, Sang Suk ; Berndt, Alexandre ; Reynolds, Christopher K. ; Crompton, Les A. ; Bayat, Ali R. ; Yáñez-Ruiz, David R. ; Yu, Zhongtang ; Bannink, André ; Dijkstra, Jan ; Casper, David P. ; Hristov, Alexander N. / Prediction of enteric methane production, yield and intensity of beef cattle using an intercontinental database. In: Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. 2019 ; Vol. 283.
@article{014c05bc0dd64c9b837b4121e73684c7,
title = "Prediction of enteric methane production, yield and intensity of beef cattle using an intercontinental database",
abstract = "Enteric methane (CH4) production attributable to beef cattle contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions. Reliably estimating this contribution requires extensive CH4 emission data from beef cattle under different management conditions worldwide. The objectives were to: 1) predict CH4 production (g d−1 animal−1), yield [g (kg dry matter intake; DMI)−1] and intensity [g (kg average daily gain)−1] using an intercontinental database (data from Europe, North America, Brazil, Australia and South Korea); 2) assess the impact of geographic region, and of higher- and lower-forage diets. Linear models were developed by incrementally adding covariates. A K-fold cross-validation indicated that a CH4 production equation using only DMI that was fitted to all available data had a root mean square prediction error (RMSPE; {\%} of observed mean) of 31.2{\%}. Subsets containing data with ≥25{\%} and ≤18{\%} dietary forage contents had an RMSPE of 30.8 and 34.2{\%}, with the all-data CH4 production equation, whereas these errors decreased to 29.3 and 28.4{\%}, respectively, when using CH4 prediction equations fitted to these subsets. The RMSPE of the ≥25{\%} forage subset further decreased to 24.7{\%} when using multiple regression. Europe- and North America-specific subsets predicted by the best performing ≥25{\%} forage multiple regression equation had RMSPE of 24.5 and 20.4{\%}, whereas these errors were 24.5 and 20.0{\%} with region-specific equations, respectively. The developed equations had less RMSPE than extant equations evaluated for all data (22.5 vs. 23.2{\%}), for higher-forage (21.2 vs. 23.1{\%}), but not for the lower-forage subsets (28.4 vs. 27.9{\%}). Splitting the dataset by forage content did not improve CH4 yield or intensity predictions. Predicting beef cattle CH4 production using energy conversion factors, as applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, indicated that adequate forage content-based and region-specific energy conversion factors improve prediction accuracy and are preferred in national or global inventories.",
keywords = "Dietary variables, Empirical modeling, Forage content, Geographical region, Methane emission",
author = "{van Lingen}, {Henk J.} and Mutian Niu and Ermias Kebreab and {Valadares Filho}, {Sebasti{\~a}o C.} and Rooke, {John A.} and Duthie, {Carol Anne} and Angela Schwarm and Michael Kreuzer and Hynd, {Phil I.} and Mariana Caetano and Maguy Eug{\`e}ne and C{\'e}cile Martin and Mark McGee and Padraig O'Kiely and Martin H{\"u}nerberg and McAllister, {Tim A.} and Berchielli, {Telma T.} and Messana, {Juliana D.} and Nico Peiren and Chaves, {Alex V.} and Ed Charmley and N.A. Cole and Hales, {Kristin E.} and Lee, {Sang Suk} and Alexandre Berndt and Reynolds, {Christopher K.} and Crompton, {Les A.} and Bayat, {Ali R.} and Y{\'a}{\~n}ez-Ruiz, {David R.} and Zhongtang Yu and Andr{\'e} Bannink and Jan Dijkstra and Casper, {David P.} and Hristov, {Alexander N.}",
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month = "11",
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issn = "0167-8809",
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van Lingen, HJ, Niu, M, Kebreab, E, Valadares Filho, SC, Rooke, JA, Duthie, CA, Schwarm, A, Kreuzer, M, Hynd, PI, Caetano, M, Eugène, M, Martin, C, McGee, M, O'Kiely, P, Hünerberg, M, McAllister, TA, Berchielli, TT, Messana, JD, Peiren, N, Chaves, AV, Charmley, E, Cole, NA, Hales, KE, Lee, SS, Berndt, A, Reynolds, CK, Crompton, LA, Bayat, AR, Yáñez-Ruiz, DR, Yu, Z, Bannink, A, Dijkstra, J, Casper, DP & Hristov, AN 2019, 'Prediction of enteric methane production, yield and intensity of beef cattle using an intercontinental database', Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, vol. 283, 106575. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2019.106575

Prediction of enteric methane production, yield and intensity of beef cattle using an intercontinental database. / van Lingen, Henk J.; Niu, Mutian; Kebreab, Ermias; Valadares Filho, Sebastião C.; Rooke, John A.; Duthie, Carol Anne; Schwarm, Angela; Kreuzer, Michael; Hynd, Phil I.; Caetano, Mariana; Eugène, Maguy; Martin, Cécile; McGee, Mark; O'Kiely, Padraig; Hünerberg, Martin; McAllister, Tim A.; Berchielli, Telma T.; Messana, Juliana D.; Peiren, Nico; Chaves, Alex V.; Charmley, Ed; Cole, N.A.; Hales, Kristin E.; Lee, Sang Suk; Berndt, Alexandre; Reynolds, Christopher K.; Crompton, Les A.; Bayat, Ali R.; Yáñez-Ruiz, David R.; Yu, Zhongtang; Bannink, André; Dijkstra, Jan; Casper, David P.; Hristov, Alexander N.

In: Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, Vol. 283, 106575, 01.11.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Prediction of enteric methane production, yield and intensity of beef cattle using an intercontinental database

AU - van Lingen, Henk J.

AU - Niu, Mutian

AU - Kebreab, Ermias

AU - Valadares Filho, Sebastião C.

AU - Rooke, John A.

AU - Duthie, Carol Anne

AU - Schwarm, Angela

AU - Kreuzer, Michael

AU - Hynd, Phil I.

AU - Caetano, Mariana

AU - Eugène, Maguy

AU - Martin, Cécile

AU - McGee, Mark

AU - O'Kiely, Padraig

AU - Hünerberg, Martin

AU - McAllister, Tim A.

AU - Berchielli, Telma T.

AU - Messana, Juliana D.

AU - Peiren, Nico

AU - Chaves, Alex V.

AU - Charmley, Ed

AU - Cole, N.A.

AU - Hales, Kristin E.

AU - Lee, Sang Suk

AU - Berndt, Alexandre

AU - Reynolds, Christopher K.

AU - Crompton, Les A.

AU - Bayat, Ali R.

AU - Yáñez-Ruiz, David R.

AU - Yu, Zhongtang

AU - Bannink, André

AU - Dijkstra, Jan

AU - Casper, David P.

AU - Hristov, Alexander N.

PY - 2019/11/1

Y1 - 2019/11/1

N2 - Enteric methane (CH4) production attributable to beef cattle contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions. Reliably estimating this contribution requires extensive CH4 emission data from beef cattle under different management conditions worldwide. The objectives were to: 1) predict CH4 production (g d−1 animal−1), yield [g (kg dry matter intake; DMI)−1] and intensity [g (kg average daily gain)−1] using an intercontinental database (data from Europe, North America, Brazil, Australia and South Korea); 2) assess the impact of geographic region, and of higher- and lower-forage diets. Linear models were developed by incrementally adding covariates. A K-fold cross-validation indicated that a CH4 production equation using only DMI that was fitted to all available data had a root mean square prediction error (RMSPE; % of observed mean) of 31.2%. Subsets containing data with ≥25% and ≤18% dietary forage contents had an RMSPE of 30.8 and 34.2%, with the all-data CH4 production equation, whereas these errors decreased to 29.3 and 28.4%, respectively, when using CH4 prediction equations fitted to these subsets. The RMSPE of the ≥25% forage subset further decreased to 24.7% when using multiple regression. Europe- and North America-specific subsets predicted by the best performing ≥25% forage multiple regression equation had RMSPE of 24.5 and 20.4%, whereas these errors were 24.5 and 20.0% with region-specific equations, respectively. The developed equations had less RMSPE than extant equations evaluated for all data (22.5 vs. 23.2%), for higher-forage (21.2 vs. 23.1%), but not for the lower-forage subsets (28.4 vs. 27.9%). Splitting the dataset by forage content did not improve CH4 yield or intensity predictions. Predicting beef cattle CH4 production using energy conversion factors, as applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, indicated that adequate forage content-based and region-specific energy conversion factors improve prediction accuracy and are preferred in national or global inventories.

AB - Enteric methane (CH4) production attributable to beef cattle contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions. Reliably estimating this contribution requires extensive CH4 emission data from beef cattle under different management conditions worldwide. The objectives were to: 1) predict CH4 production (g d−1 animal−1), yield [g (kg dry matter intake; DMI)−1] and intensity [g (kg average daily gain)−1] using an intercontinental database (data from Europe, North America, Brazil, Australia and South Korea); 2) assess the impact of geographic region, and of higher- and lower-forage diets. Linear models were developed by incrementally adding covariates. A K-fold cross-validation indicated that a CH4 production equation using only DMI that was fitted to all available data had a root mean square prediction error (RMSPE; % of observed mean) of 31.2%. Subsets containing data with ≥25% and ≤18% dietary forage contents had an RMSPE of 30.8 and 34.2%, with the all-data CH4 production equation, whereas these errors decreased to 29.3 and 28.4%, respectively, when using CH4 prediction equations fitted to these subsets. The RMSPE of the ≥25% forage subset further decreased to 24.7% when using multiple regression. Europe- and North America-specific subsets predicted by the best performing ≥25% forage multiple regression equation had RMSPE of 24.5 and 20.4%, whereas these errors were 24.5 and 20.0% with region-specific equations, respectively. The developed equations had less RMSPE than extant equations evaluated for all data (22.5 vs. 23.2%), for higher-forage (21.2 vs. 23.1%), but not for the lower-forage subsets (28.4 vs. 27.9%). Splitting the dataset by forage content did not improve CH4 yield or intensity predictions. Predicting beef cattle CH4 production using energy conversion factors, as applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, indicated that adequate forage content-based and region-specific energy conversion factors improve prediction accuracy and are preferred in national or global inventories.

KW - Dietary variables

KW - Empirical modeling

KW - Forage content

KW - Geographical region

KW - Methane emission

U2 - 10.1016/j.agee.2019.106575

DO - 10.1016/j.agee.2019.106575

M3 - Article

VL - 283

JO - Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment

JF - Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment

SN - 0167-8809

M1 - 106575

ER -