TY - JOUR
T1 - Prediction of deoxynivalenol contamination in spring oats in Sweden using explainable artificial intelligence
AU - Wang, X.
AU - Borjesson, T.
AU - Wetterlind, J.
AU - van der Fels-Klerx, H.J.
PY - 2024/10/4
Y1 - 2024/10/4
N2 - Weather conditions and agronomical factors are known to affect Fusarium spp. growth and ultimately deoxynivalenol (DON) contamination in oat. This study aimed to develop predictive models for the contamination of spring oat at harvest with DON on a regional basis in Sweden using machine-learning algorithms. Three models were developed as regional risk-assessment tools for farmers, crop collectors, and food safety inspectors, respectively. Data included: weather data from different oat growing periods, agronomical data, site-specific data, and DON contamination data from the previous year. Results showed that: (1) RF models were able to predict DON contamination at harvest with a total classification accuracy of minimal 0.72; (2) good predictions could already be made in June; (3) rainfall, relative humidity, and wind speed in different oat growing stages, followed by crop variety and elevation were the most important features for predicting DON contamination in spring oats at harvest.
AB - Weather conditions and agronomical factors are known to affect Fusarium spp. growth and ultimately deoxynivalenol (DON) contamination in oat. This study aimed to develop predictive models for the contamination of spring oat at harvest with DON on a regional basis in Sweden using machine-learning algorithms. Three models were developed as regional risk-assessment tools for farmers, crop collectors, and food safety inspectors, respectively. Data included: weather data from different oat growing periods, agronomical data, site-specific data, and DON contamination data from the previous year. Results showed that: (1) RF models were able to predict DON contamination at harvest with a total classification accuracy of minimal 0.72; (2) good predictions could already be made in June; (3) rainfall, relative humidity, and wind speed in different oat growing stages, followed by crop variety and elevation were the most important features for predicting DON contamination in spring oats at harvest.
U2 - 10.1038/s41538-024-00310-w
DO - 10.1038/s41538-024-00310-w
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85205968074
SN - 2396-8370
VL - 8
JO - npj Science of Food
JF - npj Science of Food
M1 - 75
ER -