Predicting future costs of High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza epidemics: large versus small uncertainties

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Every five years, the Dutch government and the poultry sector agree on how the direct costs of epidemics in poultry, should they occur, will be shared. In the agreement for 2005¿2009 the maximum amount to be paid by the poultry sector was set considerably higher than in the 1999¿2004 agreement. This increase was caused mainly by the expected financial risks associated with High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) epidemics. In this paper we focus on elucidating the uncertain and the less uncertain aspects of the HPAI financial risk problem. We distinguish between (1) the probability of an introduction of HPAI in the Netherlands, (2) the transmission potential of HPAI in the Netherlands, and (3) the costs and financing issues resulting from HPAI epidemics. We argue that whereas current understanding allows relatively precise answers to the question `If there is an there is an epidemic, how many farms will be affected and what will be the direct costs?¿, much larger uncertainties are associated with the questions `What is the chance of an HPAI epidemic in the Netherlands?¿, `How large will be the long-term government share in the direct costs?, and `How large will be the indirect costs?
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)195-205
JournalNJAS Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences
Volume54
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2006

Fingerprint

avian influenza
Influenza in Birds
pathogenicity
Uncertainty
contagious disease
Virulence
uncertainty
Costs and Cost Analysis
Poultry
costs
poultry
cost
Netherlands
funding
farm
farms

Keywords

  • poultry farming
  • free range husbandry
  • battery husbandry
  • infectious diseases
  • avian influenza A viruses
  • avian influenza viruses
  • costs
  • agricultural financial policy
  • risk assessment
  • models

Cite this

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title = "Predicting future costs of High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza epidemics: large versus small uncertainties",
abstract = "Every five years, the Dutch government and the poultry sector agree on how the direct costs of epidemics in poultry, should they occur, will be shared. In the agreement for 2005¿2009 the maximum amount to be paid by the poultry sector was set considerably higher than in the 1999¿2004 agreement. This increase was caused mainly by the expected financial risks associated with High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) epidemics. In this paper we focus on elucidating the uncertain and the less uncertain aspects of the HPAI financial risk problem. We distinguish between (1) the probability of an introduction of HPAI in the Netherlands, (2) the transmission potential of HPAI in the Netherlands, and (3) the costs and financing issues resulting from HPAI epidemics. We argue that whereas current understanding allows relatively precise answers to the question `If there is an there is an epidemic, how many farms will be affected and what will be the direct costs?¿, much larger uncertainties are associated with the questions `What is the chance of an HPAI epidemic in the Netherlands?¿, `How large will be the long-term government share in the direct costs?, and `How large will be the indirect costs?",
keywords = "pluimveehouderij, scharrelhouderij, batterijhuisvesting, infectieziekten, aviaire influenza A-virussen, aviaire influenzavirussen, kosten, financieel landbouwbeleid, risicoschatting, modellen, poultry farming, free range husbandry, battery husbandry, infectious diseases, avian influenza A viruses, avian influenza viruses, costs, agricultural financial policy, risk assessment, models",
author = "M.P.M. Meuwissen and {van Boven}, R.M. and T.H.J. Hagenaars and G.J. Boender and G. Nodelijk and {de Jong}, M.C.M. and R.B.M. Huirne",
note = "PORmapr nr. 1642",
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doi = "10.1016/S1573-5214(06)80022-9",
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pages = "195--205",
journal = "NJAS Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences",
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}

Predicting future costs of High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza epidemics: large versus small uncertainties. / Meuwissen, M.P.M.; van Boven, R.M.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Boender, G.J.; Nodelijk, G.; de Jong, M.C.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

In: NJAS Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences, Vol. 54, No. 2, 2006, p. 195-205.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting future costs of High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza epidemics: large versus small uncertainties

AU - Meuwissen, M.P.M.

AU - van Boven, R.M.

AU - Hagenaars, T.H.J.

AU - Boender, G.J.

AU - Nodelijk, G.

AU - de Jong, M.C.M.

AU - Huirne, R.B.M.

N1 - PORmapr nr. 1642

PY - 2006

Y1 - 2006

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AB - Every five years, the Dutch government and the poultry sector agree on how the direct costs of epidemics in poultry, should they occur, will be shared. In the agreement for 2005¿2009 the maximum amount to be paid by the poultry sector was set considerably higher than in the 1999¿2004 agreement. This increase was caused mainly by the expected financial risks associated with High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) epidemics. In this paper we focus on elucidating the uncertain and the less uncertain aspects of the HPAI financial risk problem. We distinguish between (1) the probability of an introduction of HPAI in the Netherlands, (2) the transmission potential of HPAI in the Netherlands, and (3) the costs and financing issues resulting from HPAI epidemics. We argue that whereas current understanding allows relatively precise answers to the question `If there is an there is an epidemic, how many farms will be affected and what will be the direct costs?¿, much larger uncertainties are associated with the questions `What is the chance of an HPAI epidemic in the Netherlands?¿, `How large will be the long-term government share in the direct costs?, and `How large will be the indirect costs?

KW - pluimveehouderij

KW - scharrelhouderij

KW - batterijhuisvesting

KW - infectieziekten

KW - aviaire influenza A-virussen

KW - aviaire influenzavirussen

KW - kosten

KW - financieel landbouwbeleid

KW - risicoschatting

KW - modellen

KW - poultry farming

KW - free range husbandry

KW - battery husbandry

KW - infectious diseases

KW - avian influenza A viruses

KW - avian influenza viruses

KW - costs

KW - agricultural financial policy

KW - risk assessment

KW - models

U2 - 10.1016/S1573-5214(06)80022-9

DO - 10.1016/S1573-5214(06)80022-9

M3 - Article

VL - 54

SP - 195

EP - 205

JO - NJAS Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences

JF - NJAS Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences

SN - 1573-5214

IS - 2

ER -