Predicting current and future Aedes vexans occurrence in the Netherlands

We have created predictions of the current and future occurrence of Aedes vexans (Meigen, 1830) mosquitoes in the Netherlands. Aedes vexans can transmit many different diseases, including western and eastern equine encephalitis virus, Tahyna virus, West Nile Virus and Rift Valley Fever Virus. However, lack of occurrence maps, especially at a local scale, has hampered accurate disease modelling. We used extensive occurrence data collected by the Netherlands Centre for Monitoring of Vectors to train models using AutoML. We made future predictions for 2050 using a combination of climate scenarios (from the Dutch Meteorological Organistion) and socio-economic scenarios (the Dutch One Health SSPs). We made predictions for individual days rather than for the season as a whole, allowing us to consider future changes in seasonal dynamics. This is the first time a seasonal model for Aedes vexans has been developed and the first time future predictions have been made for this species at a national scale.