Potential impact of climate change on ecosystems of the Barents Sea Region

Hedwig Roderfeld*, Eleanor Blyth, Rutger Dankers, Geir Huse, Dag Slagstad, Ingrid Ellingsen, Annett Wolf, Manfred A. Lange

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

30 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The EU project BALANCE (Global Change Vulnerabilities in the Barents region: Linking Arctic Natural Resources, Climate Change and Economies) aims to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Barents Sea Region. As a prerequisite the potential impact of climate change on selected ecosystems of the study area has to be quantified, which is the subject of the present paper. A set of ecosystem models was run to generate baseline and future scenarios for 1990, 2020, 2050 and 2080. The models are based on data from the Regional Climate Model (REMO), driven by a GCM which in turn is forced by the IPCC-B2 scenario. The climate change is documented by means of the Köppen climate classification. Since the multitude of models requires the effect of climate change on individual terrestrial and marine systems to be integrated, the paper concentrates on a standardised visualisation of potential impacts by use of a Geographical Information System for the timeslices 2050 and 2080. The resulting maps show that both terrestrial and marine ecosystems of the Barents region will undergo significant changes until both 2050 and 2080.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)283-303
Number of pages21
JournalClimatic Change
Volume87
Issue number1-2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 29 Jan 2008
Externally publishedYes

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