Participatory risk and vulnerability assessment to decrease uncertainties in Arctic weather and sea‐ice forecasting

We are witnessing significant temperature shifts and sea-ice loss in the Arctic. While Arctic weather and sea-ice predictions have been the focal point for a number of recent partnerships and projects, significant gaps remain between scientific observations and user needs. Maritime operational and tactical planning greatly depend on weather and sea-ice forecasting information, while it is becoming increasingly challenging to model the spatial and temporal variability of Arctic weather patterns and sea-ice hazards. Aside from the uncertainties inherent in met-ocean models, the saliency and usability of information greatly impact the level to which forecasting data and tools may act as decision support for users. On the user side, several attributes impact what pathways are most effective in receiving, analyzing and utilizing forecast information products and tools. For example, vulnerabilities to users’ long-term interests, that stem from uncertain weather and sea-ice forecasts, impact the focus of planning, and risk-avoiding behaviors. These vulnerabilities may differ cross-sectorally, as does the resolution at which information is useful. In short, it is vital that available information –long-term and operational planning tools – are maximized to improve safety, identify uncertainties, guide decisions; while being interoperable across sectors.

Through analyzing the network of data users and producers, their linkages and interactions; SALIENSEAS (Enhancing the saliency of climate services for marine mobility sectors in European Arctic seas) undertakes mapping the network connections that underpin Arctic information systems. It probes existing arrangements for users to receive information, the margins that define uncertainty for users, how these risk thresholds impact risk assessment and planning, and ways to use these insights to improve tools and services. This paper reports on the first phase of the project, and progress made on a risk and vulnerability assessment of key stakeholders. The assessment integrates spatial and temporal variables that impact stakeholder interests, delineates the critical infrastructures and key resources that drive risk-informed decisions, and identifies key information that may increase certainty in decision making. The vulnerability assessment is discussed as an avenue to extract target variables for observation, and implement an iterative, participatory product development process.