Participatory analysis of water-related conflict risks in complex adaptive systems–the case of the Inner Niger Delta in Mali

To avoid negative societal implications from water management actions, the complex interrelations between water and conflict need to be understood. Assessment of such links in complex adaptive systems, characterized by various factors which mutually influence each other, is challenging. This paper explores how the use of participatory methods can support the identification of water-related conflict risks in one such complex adaptive system: the Inner Niger Delta in Mali. We find that participatory analysis not only facilitated the identification of systemic risks in a complex adaptive system, but also shapes the perceptions of these interlinkages.