Omgaan met een onzekere toekomst: Klimaatadaptatie vraagt om een antifragiele benadering

In practice climate adaptation is strongly focused on stopping the threats. In doing so, we unwittingly create water systems that actually become more vulnerable. We advocate a more anti-fragile approach. An antifragile system can adapt to changing circumstances for a long time and sometimes even improve. More thought needs to be given to options (opportunities) and less to coming up with ‘final’ solutions within the current field of uncertainty. A system with multiple options has a much better chance of surviving unexpected events and, in some cases, even benefiting from them. This can be done by designing the land with multiple spatial and functional options. In addition to another physically rearrangement of the country, it is important that we deal with risks and uncertainties differently. The current perception is very much about limiting risks and avoiding damage. We add even more technology just to avoid having to adapt. The result is that we create a form of false security. We feel protected and in doing so, we also lose a sense of the dangers of water. This is especially dangerous with future climate change. It will have to be communicated much more clearly that we cannot properly predict some of the future simply because it is too complex. Let’s take advantage of the fact that there are and will continue to be uncertainties rather than trying to minimize them.