Observed and model simulated twenty-first century hydro-climatic change of Northern Ethiopia

Samuale Tesfaye, Gebeyehu Taye, Emiru Birhane, Sjoerd E.A.T.M. van der Zee

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Study region: This study focuses on Tekeze river basin of northern Ethiopia, and it is characterized by a typical dry biogeophysical environment. Study focus: In recent years, recurrent droughts are having an adverse impact on agricultural production and water resources in northern Ethiopia. Climate change through changes on temperature, precipitation and streamflow, may further strain this critical situation. This study has investigated the observed (1961–2014) and potential (2006–2099) hydro-climatic changes in Tekeze river basin of northern Ethiopia. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are used to downscale temperature and precipitation predicated by 30 General Circulation Models (GCMs) as well as the projected streamflow changes for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenario. New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate that the variability of climatic factors as temperature and precipitation was observed to be both spatially and temporally diverse for the considered Tekeze river basin. Accordingly, the response of streamflow was also spatiotemporally complex. GCMs were evaluated with several performance indictors regarding patterns in hydro-climatic variables. The analysis showed the superiority of the multimodel ensemble means compared with individual GCM output. GCM projections for the 21century indicate a gradual reductions in streamflow attributed to the combined effect of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. The persistent increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation will have negative impacts on water availability and agriculture, hence site specific adaptation strategies are necessary.

Original languageEnglish
Article number100595
JournalJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
Volume22
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2019

Fingerprint

twenty first century
streamflow
general circulation model
climate change
river basin
temperature
water availability
agricultural production
artificial neural network
drought
water resource
agriculture

Keywords

  • Artificial neural networks
  • Climate change
  • GCM
  • Precipitation
  • Streamflow
  • Temperature

Cite this

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title = "Observed and model simulated twenty-first century hydro-climatic change of Northern Ethiopia",
abstract = "Study region: This study focuses on Tekeze river basin of northern Ethiopia, and it is characterized by a typical dry biogeophysical environment. Study focus: In recent years, recurrent droughts are having an adverse impact on agricultural production and water resources in northern Ethiopia. Climate change through changes on temperature, precipitation and streamflow, may further strain this critical situation. This study has investigated the observed (1961–2014) and potential (2006–2099) hydro-climatic changes in Tekeze river basin of northern Ethiopia. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are used to downscale temperature and precipitation predicated by 30 General Circulation Models (GCMs) as well as the projected streamflow changes for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenario. New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate that the variability of climatic factors as temperature and precipitation was observed to be both spatially and temporally diverse for the considered Tekeze river basin. Accordingly, the response of streamflow was also spatiotemporally complex. GCMs were evaluated with several performance indictors regarding patterns in hydro-climatic variables. The analysis showed the superiority of the multimodel ensemble means compared with individual GCM output. GCM projections for the 21century indicate a gradual reductions in streamflow attributed to the combined effect of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. The persistent increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation will have negative impacts on water availability and agriculture, hence site specific adaptation strategies are necessary.",
keywords = "Artificial neural networks, Climate change, GCM, Precipitation, Streamflow, Temperature",
author = "Samuale Tesfaye and Gebeyehu Taye and Emiru Birhane and {van der Zee}, {Sjoerd E.A.T.M.}",
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Observed and model simulated twenty-first century hydro-climatic change of Northern Ethiopia. / Tesfaye, Samuale; Taye, Gebeyehu; Birhane, Emiru; van der Zee, Sjoerd E.A.T.M.

In: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol. 22, 100595, 01.04.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Observed and model simulated twenty-first century hydro-climatic change of Northern Ethiopia

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AU - Taye, Gebeyehu

AU - Birhane, Emiru

AU - van der Zee, Sjoerd E.A.T.M.

PY - 2019/4/1

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