National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership

M. Meinshausen, Louise Jeffery, Johannes Guetschow, N.E. Hoehne, M. Schaeffer

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

46 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Achieving the collective goal of limiting warming to below 2 °C or 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels requires a transition towards a fully decarbonized world. Annual greenhouse gas emissions on such a path in 2025 or 2030 can be allocated to individual countries using a variety of allocation schemes. We reanalyse the IPCC literature allocation database and provide country-level details for three approaches. At this stage, however, it seems utopian to assume that the international community will agree on a single allocation scheme. Here, we investigate an approach that involves a major-economy country taking the lead. In a bottom-up manner, other countries then determine what they consider a fair comparable target, for example, either a ‘per-capita convergence’ or ‘equal cumulative per-capita’ approach. For example, we find that a 2030 target of 67% below 1990 for the EU28, a 2025 target of 54% below 2005 for the USA or a 2030 target of 32% below 2010 for China could secure a likely chance of meeting the 2 °C target in our illustrative default case. Comparing those targets to post-2020 mitigation targets reveals a large gap. No major emitter can at present claim to show the necessary leadership in the concerted effort of avoiding warming of 2 °C in a diverse global context.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1098-1106
JournalNature Climate Change
Volume5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015

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Meinshausen, M. ; Jeffery, Louise ; Guetschow, Johannes ; Hoehne, N.E. ; Schaeffer, M. / National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership. In: Nature Climate Change. 2015 ; Vol. 5. pp. 1098-1106.
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National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership. / Meinshausen, M.; Jeffery, Louise; Guetschow, Johannes; Hoehne, N.E.; Schaeffer, M.

In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, 2015, p. 1098-1106.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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