Abstract
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1098-1106 |
| Journal | Nature Climate Change |
| Volume | 5 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2015 |
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National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership. / Meinshausen, M.; Jeffery, Louise; Guetschow, Johannes; Hoehne, N.E.; Schaeffer, M.
In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, 2015, p. 1098-1106.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership
AU - Meinshausen, M.
AU - Jeffery, Louise
AU - Guetschow, Johannes
AU - Hoehne, N.E.
AU - Schaeffer, M.
PY - 2015
Y1 - 2015
N2 - Achieving the collective goal of limiting warming to below 2 °C or 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels requires a transition towards a fully decarbonized world. Annual greenhouse gas emissions on such a path in 2025 or 2030 can be allocated to individual countries using a variety of allocation schemes. We reanalyse the IPCC literature allocation database and provide country-level details for three approaches. At this stage, however, it seems utopian to assume that the international community will agree on a single allocation scheme. Here, we investigate an approach that involves a major-economy country taking the lead. In a bottom-up manner, other countries then determine what they consider a fair comparable target, for example, either a ‘per-capita convergence’ or ‘equal cumulative per-capita’ approach. For example, we find that a 2030 target of 67% below 1990 for the EU28, a 2025 target of 54% below 2005 for the USA or a 2030 target of 32% below 2010 for China could secure a likely chance of meeting the 2 °C target in our illustrative default case. Comparing those targets to post-2020 mitigation targets reveals a large gap. No major emitter can at present claim to show the necessary leadership in the concerted effort of avoiding warming of 2 °C in a diverse global context.
AB - Achieving the collective goal of limiting warming to below 2 °C or 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels requires a transition towards a fully decarbonized world. Annual greenhouse gas emissions on such a path in 2025 or 2030 can be allocated to individual countries using a variety of allocation schemes. We reanalyse the IPCC literature allocation database and provide country-level details for three approaches. At this stage, however, it seems utopian to assume that the international community will agree on a single allocation scheme. Here, we investigate an approach that involves a major-economy country taking the lead. In a bottom-up manner, other countries then determine what they consider a fair comparable target, for example, either a ‘per-capita convergence’ or ‘equal cumulative per-capita’ approach. For example, we find that a 2030 target of 67% below 1990 for the EU28, a 2025 target of 54% below 2005 for the USA or a 2030 target of 32% below 2010 for China could secure a likely chance of meeting the 2 °C target in our illustrative default case. Comparing those targets to post-2020 mitigation targets reveals a large gap. No major emitter can at present claim to show the necessary leadership in the concerted effort of avoiding warming of 2 °C in a diverse global context.
U2 - 10.1038/nclimate2826
DO - 10.1038/nclimate2826
M3 - Article
VL - 5
SP - 1098
EP - 1106
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
SN - 1758-678X
ER -