Multi-scale land use modelling with the CLUE modelling framework

For global change policies it is highly relevant to include information of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC), as LULCC contributes to global change but also offers possibilities for mitigation measures. In order to be able to describe and analyse possible LULCC in the near future, modelling approaches are necessary that can be used for scenario analysis. In this project a LULCC-model was developed called CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects). The model uses quantitative information on the main drivers of land use change at different spatial scales, derived from historical and actual land use patterns. This information is integrated in a spatially explicit dynamic modelling procedure in which near future land use changes are simulated for different scenarios. In these scenarios (inter)national developments can be evaluated, such as changing national demands for food, market liberalization or nature protection, but also regional and local developments like migration and land degradation. The model was applied in several countries in Central and South America and, through collaboration with another NRP-project, also in Asia. For each country or region, the model was calibrated and validated with historical data, and then used for scenario studies with time horizons of 15 to 20 years. Realistic patterns of land use change could be simulated, this way identifying area with highly dynamic land use and high potential impacts on the natural resource base and global climate systems. An example of the assessment of potential land use change effects was given through linkage of CLUE model output with a nutrient flux monitoring approach.