Multi-Location Climate Comparison of Potato Crop Models Preliminary Results

David H. Fleisher, Bruno Condori, Carolina Barreda, H.N.C. Berghuijs, F.K. van Evert, I. Supit, J. Wolf

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstractAcademic

Abstract

An inter-comparison of potato crop models was previously undertaken to assess the uncertainty in yield predictions centered at four different production centers across the world. This prior study included an assessment of hypothetical shifts in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (C), air temperature (T), and rainfall (W) at each location. Current research reflects a new international initiative to ascertain the response of an ensemble of potato models to changes in C concentration as empirically measured at eight separate open-top chamber and free-air CO2 enrichment systems throughout Europe. All locations utilized similar management conditions as well the Bintje variety. Modelers were provided with data sets at two of these locations at ambient C levels only for calibration purposes. The same calibration was then applied to simulating responses at ambient C for the remaining six locations as well as that at elevated C for all eight locations. Expected outcomes from this research will include assessing the capability of the ensemble of crop models to accurately replicate potato yields under elevated C as well as evaluating the stability of model calibration across multiple locations. Results will highlight accuracy among the models with respect to making single-factor regional climate change predictions, the modeling knowledge gaps needed to improve versatility of these decision support tools, and potential pitfalls associated the available experimental datasets.

Conference

Conference2018 ASA and CSSA Meeting
CountryUnited States
CityBaltimore, MD
Period4/11/187/11/18
Internet address

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potato
crop
climate
calibration
open-top chamber
prediction
regional climate
air temperature
carbon dioxide
comparison
rainfall
climate change
air
modeling

Cite this

Fleisher, D. H., Condori, B., Barreda, C., Berghuijs, H. N. C., van Evert, F. K., Supit, I., & Wolf, J. (2018). Multi-Location Climate Comparison of Potato Crop Models Preliminary Results. 1. Abstract from 2018 ASA and CSSA Meeting, Baltimore, MD, United States.
Fleisher, David H. ; Condori, Bruno ; Barreda, Carolina ; Berghuijs, H.N.C. ; van Evert, F.K. ; Supit, I. ; Wolf, J. / Multi-Location Climate Comparison of Potato Crop Models Preliminary Results. Abstract from 2018 ASA and CSSA Meeting, Baltimore, MD, United States.
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title = "Multi-Location Climate Comparison of Potato Crop Models Preliminary Results",
abstract = "An inter-comparison of potato crop models was previously undertaken to assess the uncertainty in yield predictions centered at four different production centers across the world. This prior study included an assessment of hypothetical shifts in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (C), air temperature (T), and rainfall (W) at each location. Current research reflects a new international initiative to ascertain the response of an ensemble of potato models to changes in C concentration as empirically measured at eight separate open-top chamber and free-air CO2 enrichment systems throughout Europe. All locations utilized similar management conditions as well the Bintje variety. Modelers were provided with data sets at two of these locations at ambient C levels only for calibration purposes. The same calibration was then applied to simulating responses at ambient C for the remaining six locations as well as that at elevated C for all eight locations. Expected outcomes from this research will include assessing the capability of the ensemble of crop models to accurately replicate potato yields under elevated C as well as evaluating the stability of model calibration across multiple locations. Results will highlight accuracy among the models with respect to making single-factor regional climate change predictions, the modeling knowledge gaps needed to improve versatility of these decision support tools, and potential pitfalls associated the available experimental datasets.",
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Fleisher, DH, Condori, B, Barreda, C, Berghuijs, HNC, van Evert, FK, Supit, I & Wolf, J 2018, 'Multi-Location Climate Comparison of Potato Crop Models Preliminary Results' 2018 ASA and CSSA Meeting, Baltimore, MD, United States, 4/11/18 - 7/11/18, pp. 1.

Multi-Location Climate Comparison of Potato Crop Models Preliminary Results. / Fleisher, David H.; Condori, Bruno; Barreda, Carolina; Berghuijs, H.N.C.; van Evert, F.K.; Supit, I.; Wolf, J.

2018. 1 Abstract from 2018 ASA and CSSA Meeting, Baltimore, MD, United States.

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstractAcademic

TY - CONF

T1 - Multi-Location Climate Comparison of Potato Crop Models Preliminary Results

AU - Fleisher, David H.

AU - Condori, Bruno

AU - Barreda, Carolina

AU - Berghuijs, H.N.C.

AU - van Evert, F.K.

AU - Supit, I.

AU - Wolf, J.

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - An inter-comparison of potato crop models was previously undertaken to assess the uncertainty in yield predictions centered at four different production centers across the world. This prior study included an assessment of hypothetical shifts in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (C), air temperature (T), and rainfall (W) at each location. Current research reflects a new international initiative to ascertain the response of an ensemble of potato models to changes in C concentration as empirically measured at eight separate open-top chamber and free-air CO2 enrichment systems throughout Europe. All locations utilized similar management conditions as well the Bintje variety. Modelers were provided with data sets at two of these locations at ambient C levels only for calibration purposes. The same calibration was then applied to simulating responses at ambient C for the remaining six locations as well as that at elevated C for all eight locations. Expected outcomes from this research will include assessing the capability of the ensemble of crop models to accurately replicate potato yields under elevated C as well as evaluating the stability of model calibration across multiple locations. Results will highlight accuracy among the models with respect to making single-factor regional climate change predictions, the modeling knowledge gaps needed to improve versatility of these decision support tools, and potential pitfalls associated the available experimental datasets.

AB - An inter-comparison of potato crop models was previously undertaken to assess the uncertainty in yield predictions centered at four different production centers across the world. This prior study included an assessment of hypothetical shifts in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (C), air temperature (T), and rainfall (W) at each location. Current research reflects a new international initiative to ascertain the response of an ensemble of potato models to changes in C concentration as empirically measured at eight separate open-top chamber and free-air CO2 enrichment systems throughout Europe. All locations utilized similar management conditions as well the Bintje variety. Modelers were provided with data sets at two of these locations at ambient C levels only for calibration purposes. The same calibration was then applied to simulating responses at ambient C for the remaining six locations as well as that at elevated C for all eight locations. Expected outcomes from this research will include assessing the capability of the ensemble of crop models to accurately replicate potato yields under elevated C as well as evaluating the stability of model calibration across multiple locations. Results will highlight accuracy among the models with respect to making single-factor regional climate change predictions, the modeling knowledge gaps needed to improve versatility of these decision support tools, and potential pitfalls associated the available experimental datasets.

M3 - Abstract

SP - 1

ER -

Fleisher DH, Condori B, Barreda C, Berghuijs HNC, van Evert FK, Supit I et al. Multi-Location Climate Comparison of Potato Crop Models Preliminary Results. 2018. Abstract from 2018 ASA and CSSA Meeting, Baltimore, MD, United States.