Motivation and Overview of Hydrological Ensemble Post-processing

Thomas M. Hopson, Andy Wood*, Albrecht H. Weerts

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterAcademicpeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this introduction to this chapter on hydrologic post-processing, we discuss the different but complementary directives that the " art” of post-processing must satisfy: the particular directive defined by specific applications and user needs; versus the general directive of making any ensemble member indistinguishable from the observations. Also discussed are the features of hydrologic post-pro- cessing that are similar and separate from meteorological post-processing, providing a tie-in to early chapters in this handbook. We also provide an overview of the different aspects the practitioner should keep in mind when developing and implementing algorithms to adequately " correct and calibrate” ensemble fore- casts: when forecast uncertainties should be characterized separately versus maintaining a " lumped” approach; additional aspects of hydrological ensembles that need to be maintained to satisfy additional user requirements, such as temporal covariability in the ensemble time series, an overview of the different post-processing approaches being used in practice and in the literature, and concluding with a brief overview of more specific requirements and challenges implicit in the " art” of post-processing.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationHandbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting
EditorsQ. Duan, F. Pappenberger, A. Wood, H.L. Cloke, J.C. Schaake
PublisherSpringer
Pages785-793
Number of pages9
ISBN (Electronic)9783642399251
ISBN (Print)9783642399244
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 5 Jan 2019

Keywords

  • Bias correction
  • Conditional forecast
  • Covariance
  • Estimation
  • Hydrologic modeling
  • Post-processing
  • Regression
  • Streamflow forecast
  • Systematic error
  • Uncertainty

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