Abstract
In this introduction to this chapter on hydrologic post-processing, we discuss the different but complementary directives that the " art” of post-processing must satisfy: the particular directive defined by specific applications and user needs; versus the general directive of making any ensemble member indistinguishable from the observations. Also discussed are the features of hydrologic post-pro- cessing that are similar and separate from meteorological post-processing, providing a tie-in to early chapters in this handbook. We also provide an overview of the different aspects the practitioner should keep in mind when developing and implementing algorithms to adequately " correct and calibrate” ensemble fore- casts: when forecast uncertainties should be characterized separately versus maintaining a " lumped” approach; additional aspects of hydrological ensembles that need to be maintained to satisfy additional user requirements, such as temporal covariability in the ensemble time series, an overview of the different post-processing approaches being used in practice and in the literature, and concluding with a brief overview of more specific requirements and challenges implicit in the " art” of post-processing.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting |
Editors | Q. Duan, F. Pappenberger, A. Wood, H.L. Cloke, J.C. Schaake |
Publisher | Springer |
Pages | 785-793 |
Number of pages | 9 |
ISBN (Electronic) | 9783642399251 |
ISBN (Print) | 9783642399244 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 5 Jan 2019 |
Keywords
- Bias correction
- Conditional forecast
- Covariance
- Estimation
- Hydrologic modeling
- Post-processing
- Regression
- Streamflow forecast
- Systematic error
- Uncertainty