TY - JOUR
T1 - More food, but less land and water for nature
T2 - Why agricultural productivity gains did not materialize
AU - Seijger, Chris
AU - Urfels, Anton
AU - Christoforidou, Maria
AU - Hellegers, Petra
AU - Borghuis, Gerlo
AU - Langan, Simon
AU - van Halsema, Gerardo
PY - 2025/2/1
Y1 - 2025/2/1
N2 - Realism about productivity gains in agriculture and water is critical to understand if the world can feed itself while protecting nature. We use government-reported data to review progress over 2000–2020 compared to projections for irrigated and rainfed agriculture and trade. Our results over the period 2000–2020 show that productivity gains largely did not materialize. Instead of consolidating cereal production and trade in favourable regions like North America, Europe and Russia, their arable land declined by 35 million hectares, while arable land expanded by 74 million hectares in Africa, Latin America and Eastern Asia. Likewise, water productivity gains did not materialize, as photosynthesis breakthroughs did not occur. Land productivity (yield) gains were projected to rise 21–61 %, making the observed increase in cereal yields of 31 % a slight one. This puts the world on the path of using steadily more land and water to produce food and feed, at the expense of nature. Solutions to veer off this path include reducing food demand (including dietary change), stabilising rainfed agriculture and broadening the crop genetic resources base.
AB - Realism about productivity gains in agriculture and water is critical to understand if the world can feed itself while protecting nature. We use government-reported data to review progress over 2000–2020 compared to projections for irrigated and rainfed agriculture and trade. Our results over the period 2000–2020 show that productivity gains largely did not materialize. Instead of consolidating cereal production and trade in favourable regions like North America, Europe and Russia, their arable land declined by 35 million hectares, while arable land expanded by 74 million hectares in Africa, Latin America and Eastern Asia. Likewise, water productivity gains did not materialize, as photosynthesis breakthroughs did not occur. Land productivity (yield) gains were projected to rise 21–61 %, making the observed increase in cereal yields of 31 % a slight one. This puts the world on the path of using steadily more land and water to produce food and feed, at the expense of nature. Solutions to veer off this path include reducing food demand (including dietary change), stabilising rainfed agriculture and broadening the crop genetic resources base.
KW - Comprehensive Assessment
KW - Critical analyses
KW - FAOSTAT
KW - Planetary health
KW - Reorientation
KW - Water accounting
KW - Yield gap
U2 - 10.1016/j.agwat.2024.109229
DO - 10.1016/j.agwat.2024.109229
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85211456406
SN - 0378-3774
VL - 307
JO - Agricultural Water Management
JF - Agricultural Water Management
M1 - 109229
ER -