Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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Abstract

A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI) during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms. Using poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent probability of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.
LanguageEnglish
Article numbere31114
JournalPLoS ONE
Volume7
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012

Fingerprint

Influenza in Birds
Orthomyxoviridae
Viruses
Influenza A virus
Farms
farms
Dust
dust
Poultry
avian influenza
Pathogens
Netherlands
Particles (particulate matter)
poultry
deterioration
pathogens
Infection
infection

Keywords

  • mouth-disease virus
  • swine-fever virus
  • livestock buildings
  • commercial poultry
  • airborne spread
  • great-britain
  • risk-factors
  • a virus
  • epidemic
  • foot

Cite this

@article{da88300d5ee240299347a73bf3fd8560,
title = "Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms",
abstract = "A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI) during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms. Using poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent probability of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24{\%} of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.",
keywords = "mouth-disease virus, swine-fever virus, livestock buildings, commercial poultry, airborne spread, great-britain, risk-factors, a virus, epidemic, foot",
author = "A. Ssematimba and T.H.J. Hagenaars and {de Jong}, M.",
year = "2012",
doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0031114",
language = "English",
volume = "7",
journal = "PLoS ONE",
issn = "1932-6203",
publisher = "Public Library of Science",
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Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms. / Ssematimba, A.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.; de Jong, M.

In: PLoS ONE, Vol. 7, No. 2, e31114, 2012.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms

AU - Ssematimba, A.

AU - Hagenaars, T.H.J.

AU - de Jong, M.

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI) during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms. Using poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent probability of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.

AB - A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI) during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms. Using poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent probability of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.

KW - mouth-disease virus

KW - swine-fever virus

KW - livestock buildings

KW - commercial poultry

KW - airborne spread

KW - great-britain

KW - risk-factors

KW - a virus

KW - epidemic

KW - foot

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DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0031114

M3 - Article

VL - 7

JO - PLoS ONE

T2 - PLoS ONE

JF - PLoS ONE

SN - 1932-6203

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