Modelling the impact of nitrogen deposition, climate change and nutrient limitations on tree carbon sequestration in Europe for the period 1900–2050

W. de Vries, M. Posch

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

50 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We modelled the combined effects of past and expected future changes in climate and nitrogen deposition on tree carbon sequestration by European forests for the period 1900–2050. Two scenarios for deposition (current legislation and maximum technically feasible reductions) and two climate scenarios (no change and SRES A1 scenario) were used. Furthermore, the possible limitation of forest growth by calcium, magnesium, potassium and phosphorus is investigated. The area and age structure of the forests was assumed to stay constant to observations during the period 1970–1990. Under these assumptions, the simulations show that the change in forest growth and carbon sequestration in the past is dominated by changes in nitrogen deposition, while climate change is the major driver for future carbon sequestration. However, its impact is reduced by nitrogen availability. Furthermore, limitations in base cations, especially magnesium, and in phosphorus may significantly affect predicted growth in the future. A modelling exercise indicates that nitrogen deposition mainly enhanced tree carbon sequestration in Europe in the past, while climate change will do so in the future
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2289-2299
JournalEnvironmental Pollution
Volume159
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011

Keywords

  • forest ecosystems
  • elevated co2
  • terrestrial ecosystems
  • primary productivity
  • tropospheric ozone
  • temperate forests
  • projected changes
  • acid deposition
  • boreal forests
  • douglas-fir

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