Modelling the epidemiology of salmonella in the pork supply chain

M.A. van der Gaag, H.J.P.M. Vos, H.W. Saatkamp, R.B.M. Huirne, P. van Beek

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference paper

    Abstract

    The interest in reducing the incidence of food-borne diseases, such as salmonellosis caused by pork is increasing. All stages in the pork supply chain can take preventive and reductive measures to decrease the Salmonella prevalence. But it is necessary to have insight in the effect of these measures on the final prevalence of contaminated carcasses. In this way imposing expensive but ineffective measures can be avoided. In order to be able to obtain such evaluations, a stochastic state-transition model is designed. Five stages are included (from piglet to carcass) and two risk-profiles are formulated for each stage: high-risk and low-risk. Scenario studies with the model indicate that all stages may contribute to an increased food safety. The impact of the multiplying stage is limited, because the animals may recover during the finishing stage. Recovery after the finishing stage is not possible, although the transport and lairage can prevent further transmission. At the slaughterhouse the number of contaminated carcasses is highly determined by the prevalence of the supplied animals and the risk profile. Measures in the finishing stage are effective in the reduction of Salmonella in pork, but may be cancelled out if the following stages do not take preventive and reductive measures.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationProceedings of the International Symposium on Applications of Modelling as an Innovative Technology in the Agri-Food-Chain
    EditorsM.L.A.T.M. Hertog, B.R. MacKay
    Pages159-164
    Publication statusPublished - 2001
    EventThe second international Symposium on Applications of Modelling as an Innovative Technology in the Agri-Food-Chain - Palmerston North, New Zealand
    Duration: 9 Dec 200113 Dec 2001

    Publication series

    NameActa Horticulturae
    ISSN (Print)0567-7572

    Conference

    ConferenceThe second international Symposium on Applications of Modelling as an Innovative Technology in the Agri-Food-Chain
    CityPalmerston North, New Zealand
    Period9/12/0113/12/01

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