Modelling the effectiveness and risks of vaccination strategies to control Classical Swine fever epidemics

J.A. Backer, T.H.J. Hagenaars, H.J.W. van Roermund, M.C.M. de Jong

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

47 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In a recent update of the Dutch contingency plan for controlling outbreaks of classical swine fever (CSF), emergency vaccination is preferred to large-scale pre-emptive culling. This policy change raised two questions: can emergency vaccination be as effective as pre-emptive culling, and what are the implications for showing freedom of infection? Here, we integrate quantitative information available on CSF virus transmission and vaccination effects into a stochastic mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics at the level of animals, farms and livestock areas. This multilevel approach connects individual-level interventions to large-scale effects. Using this model, we compare the performance of five different control strategies applied to hypothetical CSF epidemics in The Netherlands and, for each of these strategies, we study the properties of three different screening scenarios to show freedom of infection. We find that vaccination in a ring of 2¿km radius around a detected infection source is as effective as ring culling in a 1¿km radius. Feasible screening scenarios, adapted to the use of emergency vaccination, can reduce the enhanced risks of (initially) undetected farm outbreaks by targeting vaccinated farms. Altogether, our results suggest that emergency vaccination against CSF can be equally effective and safe as pre-emptive culling
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)849-861
JournalJournal of the Royal Society, Interface
Volume6
Issue number39
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2009

Keywords

  • between-pen transmission
  • marker vaccine
  • subunit vaccine
  • weaner pigs
  • within-pen
  • virus
  • netherlands
  • quantification
  • disease
  • e2

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Modelling the effectiveness and risks of vaccination strategies to control Classical Swine fever epidemics'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this