Modelling the effectiveness and risks of vaccination strategies to control Classical Swine fever epidemics

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

44 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In a recent update of the Dutch contingency plan for controlling outbreaks of classical swine fever (CSF), emergency vaccination is preferred to large-scale pre-emptive culling. This policy change raised two questions: can emergency vaccination be as effective as pre-emptive culling, and what are the implications for showing freedom of infection? Here, we integrate quantitative information available on CSF virus transmission and vaccination effects into a stochastic mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics at the level of animals, farms and livestock areas. This multilevel approach connects individual-level interventions to large-scale effects. Using this model, we compare the performance of five different control strategies applied to hypothetical CSF epidemics in The Netherlands and, for each of these strategies, we study the properties of three different screening scenarios to show freedom of infection. We find that vaccination in a ring of 2¿km radius around a detected infection source is as effective as ring culling in a 1¿km radius. Feasible screening scenarios, adapted to the use of emergency vaccination, can reduce the enhanced risks of (initially) undetected farm outbreaks by targeting vaccinated farms. Altogether, our results suggest that emergency vaccination against CSF can be equally effective and safe as pre-emptive culling
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)849-861
JournalJournal of the Royal Society, Interface
Volume6
Issue number39
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2009

Fingerprint

Classical Swine Fever
Farms
Vaccination
Emergencies
Screening
Disease Outbreaks
Infection
Viruses
Classical swine fever virus
Animals
Domestic Animals
Livestock
Mathematical models
Netherlands
Theoretical Models

Keywords

  • between-pen transmission
  • marker vaccine
  • subunit vaccine
  • weaner pigs
  • within-pen
  • virus
  • netherlands
  • quantification
  • disease
  • e2

Cite this

@article{32a735f01aee4774a4669c1cf6a34507,
title = "Modelling the effectiveness and risks of vaccination strategies to control Classical Swine fever epidemics",
abstract = "In a recent update of the Dutch contingency plan for controlling outbreaks of classical swine fever (CSF), emergency vaccination is preferred to large-scale pre-emptive culling. This policy change raised two questions: can emergency vaccination be as effective as pre-emptive culling, and what are the implications for showing freedom of infection? Here, we integrate quantitative information available on CSF virus transmission and vaccination effects into a stochastic mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics at the level of animals, farms and livestock areas. This multilevel approach connects individual-level interventions to large-scale effects. Using this model, we compare the performance of five different control strategies applied to hypothetical CSF epidemics in The Netherlands and, for each of these strategies, we study the properties of three different screening scenarios to show freedom of infection. We find that vaccination in a ring of 2¿km radius around a detected infection source is as effective as ring culling in a 1¿km radius. Feasible screening scenarios, adapted to the use of emergency vaccination, can reduce the enhanced risks of (initially) undetected farm outbreaks by targeting vaccinated farms. Altogether, our results suggest that emergency vaccination against CSF can be equally effective and safe as pre-emptive culling",
keywords = "between-pen transmission, marker vaccine, subunit vaccine, weaner pigs, within-pen, virus, netherlands, quantification, disease, e2",
author = "J.A. Backer and T.H.J. Hagenaars and {van Roermund}, H.J.W. and {de Jong}, M.C.M.",
note = "Online first",
year = "2009",
doi = "10.1098/rsif.2008.0408",
language = "English",
volume = "6",
pages = "849--861",
journal = "Journal of the Royal Society, Interface",
issn = "1742-5689",
publisher = "Royal Society of London",
number = "39",

}

Modelling the effectiveness and risks of vaccination strategies to control Classical Swine fever epidemics. / Backer, J.A.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.; van Roermund, H.J.W.; de Jong, M.C.M.

In: Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, Vol. 6, No. 39, 2009, p. 849-861.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modelling the effectiveness and risks of vaccination strategies to control Classical Swine fever epidemics

AU - Backer, J.A.

AU - Hagenaars, T.H.J.

AU - van Roermund, H.J.W.

AU - de Jong, M.C.M.

N1 - Online first

PY - 2009

Y1 - 2009

N2 - In a recent update of the Dutch contingency plan for controlling outbreaks of classical swine fever (CSF), emergency vaccination is preferred to large-scale pre-emptive culling. This policy change raised two questions: can emergency vaccination be as effective as pre-emptive culling, and what are the implications for showing freedom of infection? Here, we integrate quantitative information available on CSF virus transmission and vaccination effects into a stochastic mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics at the level of animals, farms and livestock areas. This multilevel approach connects individual-level interventions to large-scale effects. Using this model, we compare the performance of five different control strategies applied to hypothetical CSF epidemics in The Netherlands and, for each of these strategies, we study the properties of three different screening scenarios to show freedom of infection. We find that vaccination in a ring of 2¿km radius around a detected infection source is as effective as ring culling in a 1¿km radius. Feasible screening scenarios, adapted to the use of emergency vaccination, can reduce the enhanced risks of (initially) undetected farm outbreaks by targeting vaccinated farms. Altogether, our results suggest that emergency vaccination against CSF can be equally effective and safe as pre-emptive culling

AB - In a recent update of the Dutch contingency plan for controlling outbreaks of classical swine fever (CSF), emergency vaccination is preferred to large-scale pre-emptive culling. This policy change raised two questions: can emergency vaccination be as effective as pre-emptive culling, and what are the implications for showing freedom of infection? Here, we integrate quantitative information available on CSF virus transmission and vaccination effects into a stochastic mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics at the level of animals, farms and livestock areas. This multilevel approach connects individual-level interventions to large-scale effects. Using this model, we compare the performance of five different control strategies applied to hypothetical CSF epidemics in The Netherlands and, for each of these strategies, we study the properties of three different screening scenarios to show freedom of infection. We find that vaccination in a ring of 2¿km radius around a detected infection source is as effective as ring culling in a 1¿km radius. Feasible screening scenarios, adapted to the use of emergency vaccination, can reduce the enhanced risks of (initially) undetected farm outbreaks by targeting vaccinated farms. Altogether, our results suggest that emergency vaccination against CSF can be equally effective and safe as pre-emptive culling

KW - between-pen transmission

KW - marker vaccine

KW - subunit vaccine

KW - weaner pigs

KW - within-pen

KW - virus

KW - netherlands

KW - quantification

KW - disease

KW - e2

U2 - 10.1098/rsif.2008.0408

DO - 10.1098/rsif.2008.0408

M3 - Article

VL - 6

SP - 849

EP - 861

JO - Journal of the Royal Society, Interface

JF - Journal of the Royal Society, Interface

SN - 1742-5689

IS - 39

ER -