Modelling of intensive and extensive farming in CLUE

land use modelling framework EURURALIS, and will allow EURURALIS to predict the effect on land use intensity of future policy under different scenarios. In turn, this makes it possible to predict policy effects on intensity-related biodiversity issues on the EU-level. Our method defines agricultural land use intensity in terms of nitrogen input. For arable land, it first combines the Land Use / Cover Area frame statistical Survey (LUCAS) dataset with Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact modelling system (CAPRI) results to assess probability of occurrence for three classes of intensity. For grassland, it uses available spatially explicit predictions of livestock intensity to assess probability of occurrence for two classes of intensity. Then, agricultural land in different intensity classes is spatially allocated using a simple allocation algorithm. We illustrate and evaluate this method for five countries: the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Greece and Poland. Intensity predictions are made for two years: 2000 (ex-post) and 2025 (using the Financial Policy Reform Scenario from the FP6 EU SENSOR project). This report contains building bocks for a possible future quality status of the method.