Modellering van risico-gebaseerde maatregelen tegen verspreiding van bestrijdingsplichtige dierziekten

This report describes an approach that allows preventive culling and emergency vaccination - as measures to combat highly transmissible livestock diseases - to be carried out in a risk-based manner. In the current policy plans for avian influenza in poultry, for classical swine fever in pigs and for foot-and-mouth disease in ruminants and pigs, both measures are linked to implementation within a circular area with a radius of 1 and 2 km respectively around outbreak farms. The risk-based approach described in this report does not use the radius of a circular area as a demarcation but a boundary value for the remaining Rbetween herds-squared, a measure of risk acceptance. In addition, individual livestock farms are prioritised based on a calculated individual contribution to the risk of spread. This prioritisation specifies which farms around an outbreak farm are eligible for preventive culling or emergency vaccination and in what order. The results show that the risk-based approach works more efficiently than preventive culling in a 1-km zone or vaccination in a 2-km zone.