Modeling the impacts of grazing land management on land-use change for the Jordan River region

In this article, we describe a simulation method for investigating the impacts of different grazing land management strategies on the productivity of (semi-)natural vegetation and the resulting feedback on land-use change. In a first application, we analyze the effects of sustainable and intensive grazing land management in the Jordan River region. For this purpose, we adapt and use the regional version of the spatially explicit modeling framework LandSHIFT. Our simulation experiments indicate that the modeled feedback mechanism has a strong effect on the spatial extent of grazing land. Consequently, the results of our study underline that the inclusion of such feedback mechanisms in land-use models can help to represent and analyze the complex interactions between humans and the environment in a more differentiated and realistic way, but they also identify the demand for more detailed empirical data on grazing land degradation in order to further improve the explanatory power of the model.