Modeling the future of the North Sea: an evaluation of quantitative tools available to explore policy, space use and planning

The goal of this study is to inventorise and categorise the modeling expertise at IMARES in order to gain insight into the possibilities to use this expertise for studies of policy space use and planning options on the Dutch continental shelf, as well as to identify useful additions to this expertise. An inventory of expertise has been compiled to answer these questions. This has been analysed in a workshop with the relevant experts of IMARES and the commissioner. This document is a report of that workshop. The main conclusion is that the models available within IMARES do not cover the entire spectrum of necessary tools. In particular, for effects of activities which disturb the seafloor on the bottom fauna and the translation of those effects to the fish community, no tools are available. This is a reflection of the situation in Europe in general: this type of models is not available anywhere else. Currently, IMARES is working to develop such tools. Furthermore, there is a great need for a wellposed food web model for higher trophic levels. To provide such a tool, IMARES is currently working to develop the OSMOSE modeling framework for the North Sea.