Model for Nature Policy 2024: Automatische validatie, modellering habitattypen, abiotische gebiedskwaliteit, abiotische knelpuntanalyse, nieuwe grenswaarden stikstof

This report describes the technical improvements to the Model for Nature Policy (MNP), a policy support tool for nature conservation in the Netherlands. In this study, the model was further developed as a policy instrument. The improvements to the MNP focus on five components: automated validation of model results, habitat type modelling, local abiotic area quality, abiotic bottleneck analysis and nitrogen deposition parameters. The results show that the automated validation and new models provide reproducible, policy-oriented outcomes and improved spatial predictions of habitat types. Local abiotic quality maps and bottleneck analyses effectively support the identification of critical factors for local nature restoration, with nitrogen deposition emerging as the primary local bottleneck in certain regions. The new nitrogen parameters result in a more accurate representation of nitrogen sensitivity, which is helpful for nature restoration and policy decisions. Further refinement of habitat type models and dynamic abiotic analyses is recommended. These model improvements make the MNP a more effective tool for policy analysis