Abstract
Determining the probability of fixation of beneficial mutations is critically important for building predictive models of adaptive evolution. Despite considerable theoretical work, models of fixation probability have stood untested for nearly a century. However, recent advances in experimental and theoretical techniques permit the development of models with testable predictions. We developed a new model for the probability of surviving genetic drift, a major component of fixation probability, for novel beneficial mutations in the fungus Aspergillus nidulans, based on the lifehistory characteristics of its colony growth on a solid surface. We tested the model by measuring the probability of surviving drift in 11 adapted strains introduced into wildtype populations of different densities. We found that the probability of surviving drift increased with mutant invasion fitness, and decreased with wildtype density, as expected. The model accurately predicted the survival probability for the majority of mutants, yielding one of the first direct tests of the extinction probability of beneficial mutations
Original language  English 

Article number  20120310 
Journal  Biology Letters 
Volume  9 
Issue number  1 
DOIs  
Publication status  Published  2013 
Keywords
 aspergillusnidulans
 fixation probability
 selection
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Data from: Model and test in a fungus of the probability that beneficial mutations survive drift
Gifford, D. R. (Creator), de Visser, A. (Creator) & Wahl, L. M. (Creator), University of Oxford, 17 Dec 2012
DOI: 10.5061/dryad.0rc67
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