Methodevernieuwing voor ex-post-beleidsevaluatie natuurherstel: Casus ‘geelbuikvuurpad’ en ‘grijze duinen’

Methodological innovation for ex post evaluation of nature restoration policies: Case studies of the yellow-bellied toad and ‘grey dunes’ habitat This project focuses on the renewal of methods for evaluating nature restoration policies. Given the huge investments and the interests at stake, it is important to understand the effectiveness of the restoration measures taken. The focus is on reconstructing an overall intervention logic and discussing methods used to determine the effects of nature restoration based on document analysis. We chose the yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata) as a case study because its conservation status needs to be improved in a limited area only and all the relevant parties could be interviewed within the project. Based on the interview results, we reconstructed a Theory of Change (ToC), which shows that while the policy measures and restoration measures are broadly aligned, more bespoke solutions and more political commitment are needed. Scaling up the ToC to a regional or national scale level makes the method very complex. Systems theory provides an opportunity to visualise complex systems, nonlinear relationships and mutually reinforcing and weakening environmental variables.