Metapopulation shift and survival of woodland birds under climate change: will species be able to track?

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26 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Climate change has been widely recognized as a key factor driving changes in species distributions. In this study we use a metapopulation model, with a window of suitable climate moving polewards, to explore population shifts and survival of woodland birds under different climate change scenarios and landscape configurations. Extinction vulnerability and expansion ability are predicted for the middle spotted woodpecker Dendrocopus medius and two alternative r-K strategies under west European climate change scenarios of 1, 2 and 4°C temperature increase per century, corresponding to isotemperature velocities of ca 2, 4 and 8 km yr-1. The simulated northward expansion of the bird's distribution is typically in the range of only 0–3 km yr-1, in spite of 10–20 times larger maximum dispersal distances. This is too slow to track the climate change-driven range contraction of 4 or 8 km yr-1 in the south resulting in metapopulation extinction. Especially K-selected (large-bodied) species are vulnerable in the simulations. With a temperature increase of 4°C per century bird species go extinct within 104–178 yr. We present a simple approximation formula to predict the mean time to metapopulation extinction using 1) the rate of climate change, which determines the speed of range contraction in the south, 2) the size of the distribution range, which serves as a buffer against extinction, and 3) the northward expansion velocity, determined by species traits and landscape properties. Finally, our results indicate that the northward expansion rate is not constant. It will be initially lagged suggesting that recently observed expansion rates might be underestimations of future northward expansion rates
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)909-919
JournalEcography
Volume34
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011

Fingerprint

metapopulation
woodlands
woodland
climate change
bird
extinction
birds
contraction
Dendrocopos medius
temperature
vulnerability
buffers
biogeography
climate
rate
simulation
distribution

Keywords

  • woodpecker dendrocopos-medius
  • habitat fragmentation
  • range expansion
  • landscape structure
  • extinction risk
  • change impacts
  • distributions
  • population
  • dispersal
  • scale

Cite this

@article{f62d5dc5a8be45de9b61e8e0032eb7ae,
title = "Metapopulation shift and survival of woodland birds under climate change: will species be able to track?",
abstract = "Climate change has been widely recognized as a key factor driving changes in species distributions. In this study we use a metapopulation model, with a window of suitable climate moving polewards, to explore population shifts and survival of woodland birds under different climate change scenarios and landscape configurations. Extinction vulnerability and expansion ability are predicted for the middle spotted woodpecker Dendrocopus medius and two alternative r-K strategies under west European climate change scenarios of 1, 2 and 4°C temperature increase per century, corresponding to isotemperature velocities of ca 2, 4 and 8 km yr-1. The simulated northward expansion of the bird's distribution is typically in the range of only 0–3 km yr-1, in spite of 10–20 times larger maximum dispersal distances. This is too slow to track the climate change-driven range contraction of 4 or 8 km yr-1 in the south resulting in metapopulation extinction. Especially K-selected (large-bodied) species are vulnerable in the simulations. With a temperature increase of 4°C per century bird species go extinct within 104–178 yr. We present a simple approximation formula to predict the mean time to metapopulation extinction using 1) the rate of climate change, which determines the speed of range contraction in the south, 2) the size of the distribution range, which serves as a buffer against extinction, and 3) the northward expansion velocity, determined by species traits and landscape properties. Finally, our results indicate that the northward expansion rate is not constant. It will be initially lagged suggesting that recently observed expansion rates might be underestimations of future northward expansion rates",
keywords = "woodpecker dendrocopos-medius, habitat fragmentation, range expansion, landscape structure, extinction risk, change impacts, distributions, population, dispersal, scale",
author = "P. Schippers and J. Verboom-Vasiljev and C.C. Vos and R. Jochem",
year = "2011",
doi = "10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.06712.x",
language = "English",
volume = "34",
pages = "909--919",
journal = "Ecography",
issn = "0906-7590",
publisher = "Wiley",
number = "6",

}

Metapopulation shift and survival of woodland birds under climate change: will species be able to track? / Schippers, P.; Verboom-Vasiljev, J.; Vos, C.C.; Jochem, R.

In: Ecography, Vol. 34, No. 6, 2011, p. 909-919.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Metapopulation shift and survival of woodland birds under climate change: will species be able to track?

AU - Schippers, P.

AU - Verboom-Vasiljev, J.

AU - Vos, C.C.

AU - Jochem, R.

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - Climate change has been widely recognized as a key factor driving changes in species distributions. In this study we use a metapopulation model, with a window of suitable climate moving polewards, to explore population shifts and survival of woodland birds under different climate change scenarios and landscape configurations. Extinction vulnerability and expansion ability are predicted for the middle spotted woodpecker Dendrocopus medius and two alternative r-K strategies under west European climate change scenarios of 1, 2 and 4°C temperature increase per century, corresponding to isotemperature velocities of ca 2, 4 and 8 km yr-1. The simulated northward expansion of the bird's distribution is typically in the range of only 0–3 km yr-1, in spite of 10–20 times larger maximum dispersal distances. This is too slow to track the climate change-driven range contraction of 4 or 8 km yr-1 in the south resulting in metapopulation extinction. Especially K-selected (large-bodied) species are vulnerable in the simulations. With a temperature increase of 4°C per century bird species go extinct within 104–178 yr. We present a simple approximation formula to predict the mean time to metapopulation extinction using 1) the rate of climate change, which determines the speed of range contraction in the south, 2) the size of the distribution range, which serves as a buffer against extinction, and 3) the northward expansion velocity, determined by species traits and landscape properties. Finally, our results indicate that the northward expansion rate is not constant. It will be initially lagged suggesting that recently observed expansion rates might be underestimations of future northward expansion rates

AB - Climate change has been widely recognized as a key factor driving changes in species distributions. In this study we use a metapopulation model, with a window of suitable climate moving polewards, to explore population shifts and survival of woodland birds under different climate change scenarios and landscape configurations. Extinction vulnerability and expansion ability are predicted for the middle spotted woodpecker Dendrocopus medius and two alternative r-K strategies under west European climate change scenarios of 1, 2 and 4°C temperature increase per century, corresponding to isotemperature velocities of ca 2, 4 and 8 km yr-1. The simulated northward expansion of the bird's distribution is typically in the range of only 0–3 km yr-1, in spite of 10–20 times larger maximum dispersal distances. This is too slow to track the climate change-driven range contraction of 4 or 8 km yr-1 in the south resulting in metapopulation extinction. Especially K-selected (large-bodied) species are vulnerable in the simulations. With a temperature increase of 4°C per century bird species go extinct within 104–178 yr. We present a simple approximation formula to predict the mean time to metapopulation extinction using 1) the rate of climate change, which determines the speed of range contraction in the south, 2) the size of the distribution range, which serves as a buffer against extinction, and 3) the northward expansion velocity, determined by species traits and landscape properties. Finally, our results indicate that the northward expansion rate is not constant. It will be initially lagged suggesting that recently observed expansion rates might be underestimations of future northward expansion rates

KW - woodpecker dendrocopos-medius

KW - habitat fragmentation

KW - range expansion

KW - landscape structure

KW - extinction risk

KW - change impacts

KW - distributions

KW - population

KW - dispersal

KW - scale

U2 - 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.06712.x

DO - 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.06712.x

M3 - Article

VL - 34

SP - 909

EP - 919

JO - Ecography

JF - Ecography

SN - 0906-7590

IS - 6

ER -