Mapping live fuel moisture content and flammability for continental Australia using optical remote sensing

M. Yebra, X. Quan, D. Riaño, P. Rozas Larraondo, Albert I.J.M. Van Dijk, G.J. Cary

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference paperAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

We present the first continental-scale methodology for estimating Live Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) and flammability in Australia using satellite observations. The methodology includes a physically-based retrieval model to estimate FMC from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) reflectance data using radiative transfer model inversion. The algorithm was evaluated using 363 observations at 33 locations around Australia with mean accuracy for the studied land cover classes (grassland, shrubland, and forest) close to those obtained elsewhere (r 2 =0.57, RMSE=40%) but without site-specific calibration. Logistic regression models were developed to predict a flammability index, trained on fire events mapped in the MODIS burned area product and four predictor variables calculated from the FMC estimates. The selected predictor variables were actual FMC corresponding to the 8-day and 16-day period before burning; the same but expressed as an anomaly from the long-term mean for that date; and the FMC change between the two successive 8-day periods before burning. Separate logistic regression models were developed for grassland, shrubland and forest, obtaining performance metrics of 0.70, 0.78 and 0.71, respectively, indicating reasonable skill in fire risk prediction.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2018 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, IGARSS 2018 - Proceedings
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages5903-5906
Number of pages4
ISBN (Electronic)9781538671504
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 31 Oct 2018
Externally publishedYes
Event38th Annual IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, IGARSS 2018 - Valencia, Spain
Duration: 22 Jul 201827 Jul 2018

Publication series

NameInternational Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS)
Volume2018-July

Conference

Conference38th Annual IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, IGARSS 2018
Country/TerritorySpain
CityValencia
Period22/07/1827/07/18

Keywords

  • Australia
  • Fire occurrence
  • Fire risk
  • Flammability
  • Fuel moisture content
  • MODIS
  • Radiative Transfer Models

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