Managing water and time: a systems analysis of crop planting and irrigation in South Asia

Progressively erratic monsoon patterns threaten the ability of the rice-wheat system in South Asia’s Eastern Gangetic Plains to provide food and livelihoods for their food insecure and impoverished people. Ongoing research has identified early crop planting and improved irrigation use as key entry-points to overcome these challenges. However, there are critical knowledge gaps on the complex feedback mechanisms of these activities resulting in their low and incomplete adoption. These feedback mechanisms comprise of intertwined factors beyond classic water challenges in the rice-wheat system, including temperature rise, pest and disease pressure, value chains, and policy discrepancies between household and national scales. This thesis investigates and evaluates farmers’ planting and irrigation activities in the rice-wheat system through a socio-ecological systems framework to fill the knowledge gaps – thus identifying constraints and opportunities to overcome water-related challenges for food security and poverty reduction. Empirical data on farmers’ perspectives of planting and irrigation activities were collected and analysed – indicating that farmers and policymakers alike aim to synchronize crop planting with the monsoon onset, but that irrigation use at planting and during in-season dry spells is frequently delayed by uncertainty in weather signals, groundwater availability and availability of other inputs. Simulated crop yield patterns were then used to indicate the potential of synchronizing rice planting with the monsoon onset and fully utilizing irrigation to buffer against drought to contribute to food security. The results suggest that this strategy may indeed increase productivity and resilience in the Eastern Gangetic Plains – but not in the Western Gangetic Plains. However, an analysis of large-scale household survey data on crop production indicate that the poverty reduction potential of productivity increases is limited to the largest farmers, while most farmers need to rely on additional income streams for significantly boosting their incomes. This is followed by a concluding reflection on rice-wheat system contribution to sustainable development, building a framework for managing water and managing time in agroecological systems, and the merits, challenges, and current potential of interdisciplinary mixed methods approaches to tackle complex issues in sustainable agriculture. Lastly, this thesis discusses the implication for irrigation development and management, resilience to climate change and adaptation pathways, the role of the monsoons for sustainable agriculture, and future potential for better targeting of interventions and policies.