Abstract
The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 869-874 |
Number of pages | 6 |
Journal | Science (New York, N.Y.) |
Volume | 368 |
Issue number | 6493 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 22 May 2020 |
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Data from Sullivan et al. (2020) Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests. Science. DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw7578.
Sullivan, M. J. P. (Creator), Lewis, S. L. (Creator), Affum-Baffoe, K. (Creator), Castilho, C. (Creator), Costa, F. (Creator), Sanchez, A. C. (Creator), Ewango, C. E. N. (Creator), Hubau, W. (Creator), Marimon, B. (Creator), Monteagudo-Mendoza, A. (Creator), Qie, L. (Creator), Sonké, B. (Creator), Martinez, R. V. (Creator), Baker, T. R. (Creator), Brienen, R. J. W. (Creator), Feldpausch, T. R. (Creator), Galbraith, D. (Creator), Gloor, M. (Creator), Malhi, Y. (Creator), Aiba, S. I. (Creator), Alexiades, M. N. (Creator), Almeida, E. C. (Creator), de Oliveira, E. A. (Creator), Dávila, E. Á. (Creator), Loayza, P. A. (Creator), Andrade, A. (Creator), Vieira, S. A. (Creator), Aragão, L. E. O. C. (Creator), Araujo-Murakami, A. (Creator), Arets, E. J. M. M. (Creator), Arroyo, L. (Creator), Ashton, P. (Creator), Aymard C, G. (Creator), Baccaro, F. B. (Creator), Banin, L. F. (Creator), Baraloto, C. (Creator), Camargo, P. B. (Creator), Barlow, J. (Creator), Barroso, J. (Creator), Bastin, J. F. (Creator), Batterman, S. A. (Creator), Beeckman, H. (Creator), Begne, S. K. (Creator), Bennett, A. C. (Creator), Berenguer, E. (Creator), Berry, N. (Creator), Blanc, L. (Creator), Boeckx, P. (Creator), Bogaert, J. (Creator), Bonal, D. (Creator), Bongers, F. (Creator), Bradford, M. (Creator), Brearley, F. Q. (Creator), Brncic, T. (Creator), Brown, F. (Creator), Burban, B. (Creator), Camargo, J. L. (Creator), Castro, W. (Creator), Céron, C. (Creator), Ribeiro, S. C. (Creator), Moscoso, V. C. (Creator), Chave, J. (Creator), Chezeaux, E. (Creator), Clark, C. J. (Creator), de Souza, F. C. (Creator), Collins, M. (Creator), Comiskey, J. A. (Creator), Valverde, F. C. (Creator), Medina, M. C. (Creator), da Costa, L. (Creator), Dančák, M. (Creator), Dargie, G. C. (Creator), Davies, S. (Creator), Cardozo, N. D. (Creator), de Haulleville, T. (Creator), de Medeiros, M. B. (Creator), Del Aguila Pasquel, J. (Creator), Derroire, G. (Creator), Di Fiore, A. (Creator), Doucet, J. L. (Creator), Dourdain, A. (Creator), Droissant, V. (Creator), Duque, L. F. (Creator), Ekoungoulou, R. (Creator), Elias, F. (Creator), Erwin, T. (Creator), Esquivel-Muelbert, A. (Creator), Fauset, S. (Creator), Ferreira, J. (Creator), Llampazo, G. F. (Creator), Foli, E. (Creator), Ford, A. (Creator), Gilpin, M. (Creator), Hall, J. S. (Creator), Hamer, K. C. (Creator), Hamilton, A. C. (Creator), Harris, D. J. (Creator), Hart, T. B. (Creator), Hédl, R. (Creator), Herault, B. (Creator), Herrera, R. (Creator), Higuchi, N. (Creator), Hladik, A. (Creator), Coronado, E. H. (Creator), Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, I. (Creator), Huasco, W. H. (Creator), Jeffery, K. J. (Creator), Jimenez-Rojas, E. (Creator), Kalamandeen, M. (Creator), Djuikouo, M. N. K. (Creator), Kearsley, E. (Creator), Umetsu, R. K. (Creator), Kho, L. K. (Creator), Killeen, T. (Creator), Kitayama, K. (Creator), Klitgaard, B. (Creator), Koch, A. (Creator), Labrière, N. (Creator), Laurance, W. (Creator), Laurance, S. (Creator), Leal, M. E. (Creator), Levesley, A. (Creator), Lima, A. J. N. (Creator), Lisingo, J. (Creator), Lopes, A. P. (Creator), Lopez-Gonzalez, G. (Creator), Lovejoy, T. (Creator), Lovett, J. C. (Creator), Lowe, R. (Creator), Magnusson, W. E. (Creator), Malumbres-Olarte, J. (Creator), Manzatto, Â. G. (Creator), Marimon, B. H. (Creator), Marshall, A. R. (Creator), Marthews, T. (Creator), de Almeida Reis, S. M. (Creator), Maycock, C. (Creator), Melgaço, K. (Creator), Mendoza, C. (Creator), Metali, F. (Creator), Mihindou, V. (Creator), Milliken, W. (Creator), Mitchard, E. T. A. (Creator), Morandi, P. S. (Creator), Mossman, H. L. (Creator), Nagy, L. (Creator), Nascimento, H. (Creator), Neill, D. (Creator), Nilus, R. (Creator), Vargas, P. N. (Creator), Palacios, W. (Creator), Camacho, N. P. (Creator), Peacock, J. (Creator), Pendry, C. (Creator), Peñuela Mora, M. C. (Creator), Pickavance, G. C. (Creator), Pipoly, J. (Creator), Pitman, N. (Creator), Playfair, M. (Creator), Poorter, L. (Creator), Poulsen, J. R. (Creator), Poulsen, A. D. (Creator), Preziosi, R. (Creator), Prieto, A. (Creator), Primack, R. B. (Creator), Ramírez-Angulo, H. (Creator), Reitsma, J. (Creator), Réjou-Méchain, M. (Creator), Correa, Z. R. (Creator), de Sousa, T. R. (Creator), Bayona, L. R. (Creator), Roopsind, A. (Creator), Rudas, A. (Creator), Rutishauser, E. (Creator), Abu Salim, K. (Creator), Salomão, R. P. (Creator), Schietti, J. (Creator), Sheil, D. (Creator), Silva, R. C. (Creator), Espejo, J. S. (Creator), Valeria, C. S. (Creator), Silveira, M. (Creator), Simo-Droissart, M. (Creator), Simon, M. F. (Creator), Singh, J. (Creator), Soto Shareva, Y. C. (Creator), Stahl, C. (Creator), Stropp, J. (Creator), Sukri, R. (Creator), Sunderland, T. (Creator), Svátek, M. (Creator), Swaine, M. D. (Creator), Swamy, V. (Creator), Taedoumg, H. (Creator), Talbot, J. (Creator), Taplin, J. (Creator), Taylor, D. (Creator), Ter Steege, H. (Creator), Terborgh, J. (Creator), Thomas, R. (Creator), Thomas, S. C. (Creator), Torres-Lezama, A. (Creator), Umunay, P. (Creator), Gamarra, L. V. (Creator), van der Heijden, G. (Creator), van der Hout, P. (Creator), van der Meer, P. (Creator), van Nieuwstadt, M. (Creator), Verbeeck, H. (Creator), Vernimmen, R. (Creator), Vicentini, A. (Creator), Vieira, I. C. G. (Creator), Torre, E. V. (Creator), Vleminckx, J. (Creator), Vos, V. (Creator), Wang, O. (Creator), White, L. J. T. (Creator), Willcock, S. (Creator), Woods, J. T. (Creator), Wortel, V. (Creator), Young, K. (Creator), Zagt, R. (Creator), Zemagho, L. (Creator), Zuidema, P. A. (Creator), Zwerts, J. A. (Creator) & Phillips, O. L. (Creator), University of Leeds, 2020
DOI: 10.5521/forestplots.net/2020_2
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