Long-term predictors of survival for the Seven Countries Study cohort from Crete : from 1960 to 2000

J. Moschandreas, A. Kafatos, C. Aravanis, A. Dontas, A. Menotti, D. Kromhout

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16 Citations (Scopus)


Background: In 1960, all male inhabitants of a series of villages in rural Crete, born between 1900 and 1919, were invited to participate in the Seven Countries Study. Analysis of 25-year mortality data from the 16 cohorts of participants indicated that the cohort from Crete had the lowest age-standardised all-cause and coronary heart disease death rates. Methods: At baseline, 686 Cretan men (98% of those invited) participated in health examinations. Mortality data were collected over 40 years. Time-fixed and updated covariate survival analysis techniques were applied to assess eight cardiovascular disease risk factors as long-term predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality. Results: The median survival time was 32 years. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were 26 and I I per 1000 person-years, respectively. Age (relative risk 1.11, 95% CI 1.09-1.13), diastolic blood pressure (relative risk 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03), and smoking (relative risk 1.37, 95% CI 1.14-1.64) were positively associated and forced expiratory volume (relative risk 0.50, 95% Cl 0.36-0.68) was negatively associated with all-cause mortality. Age (relative risk 1.13, 95%CI 1.09-1.16), diastolic blood pressure (relative risk 1.01, 95%CI 1.001-1.03), and forced expiratory volume (relative risk 0.53, 95% CI 0.32-0.89) were independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality. Serum cholesterol concentration and body mass index were not independently associated with death risk. Conclusions: The Cretan cohort displays favourable 40-year survival. Even so, long-term predictors of the hazard of both all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality are present. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)85-91
JournalInternational Journal of Cardiology
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2005


  • coronary-heart-disease
  • all-cause mortality
  • blood-pressure
  • risk-factors
  • 25-year mortality
  • stroke mortality
  • corfu cohort
  • follow-up
  • cholesterol
  • population


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