Forest management in Europe is changing towards a multi-functional approach in which the role of nature conservation and wood production are given equal prominence. This nature-oriented forest management will result in a very different European forest in 50-100 years time, changing felling options and assortments, not only within national borders, but also internationally through the intense trade in wood products within Europe. The state of forests was projected from 1990 to 2090 for 21 countries using the EFISCEN Model, with the countries being dynamically linked through trade flows of wood products, but with no trade outside Europe. It was found that incorporating the changes in management in 10 Central European countries leads to the area of deciduous species increasing by 2.2 million ha between 1990 and 2090, and an increase in the area of strict reserves of 3.9 million ha. The possibility of felling coniferous wood will be reduced by 19 million m 3 y -1 by 2090, but will not become noticeable until after 2045. In all European forests 76 million m 3 of dead wood will be produced annually by 2090. Total wood demand met in the simulations amounted to 430 million m 3 y -1 in 2090, far less than the scenario which assumed average growth of just over 1% per year. Nature-oriented management only partly explains the inability to meet the latter demand scenario. By 2090 forest management will be on the brink of becoming unsustainable in Scandinavia, the region that must cope with the extra demand from Central Europe.
|Journal||journal of world forest resource management|
|Publication status||Published - 2002|