Abstract
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 17 |
| Number of pages | 16 |
| Journal | Ecology and Society |
| Volume | 12 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| Publication status | Published - 2007 |
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Keywords
- ecosystem services
- ia perspective
- global change
- europe
- conservation
- narratives
- ecology
Cite this
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Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios. / Biggs, R.; Raudsepp-Hearne, C.; Atkinson-Palombo, C.; Bohensky, E.; Boyd, E.; Cundill, G.; Fox, H.; Ingram, S.; Kok, K.; Spehar, S.; Tengö, M.; Timmer, D.; Zurek, M.
In: Ecology and Society, Vol. 12, No. 1, 17, 2007.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios
AU - Biggs, R.
AU - Raudsepp-Hearne, C.
AU - Atkinson-Palombo, C.
AU - Bohensky, E.
AU - Boyd, E.
AU - Cundill, G.
AU - Fox, H.
AU - Ingram, S.
AU - Kok, K.
AU - Spehar, S.
AU - Tengö, M.
AU - Timmer, D.
AU - Zurek, M.
N1 - artikel 17
PY - 2007
Y1 - 2007
N2 - Scenario analysis is a useful tool for exploring key uncertainties that may shape the future of social-ecological systems. This paper explores the methods, costs, and benefits of developing and linking scenarios of social-ecological systems across multiple spatial scales. Drawing largely on experiences in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, we suggest that the desired degree of cross-scale linkage depends on the primary aim of the scenario exercise. Loosely linked multiscale scenarios appear more appropriate when the primary aim is to engage in exploratory dialog with stakeholders. Tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios seem to work best when the main objective is to further our understanding of cross-scale interactions or to assess trade-offs between scales. The main disadvantages of tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios are that their development requires substantial time and financial resources, and that they often suffer loss of credibility at one or more scales. The reasons for developing multiscale scenarios and the expectations associated with doing so therefore need to be carefully evaluated when choosing the desired degree of cross-scale linkage in a particular scenario exercise.
AB - Scenario analysis is a useful tool for exploring key uncertainties that may shape the future of social-ecological systems. This paper explores the methods, costs, and benefits of developing and linking scenarios of social-ecological systems across multiple spatial scales. Drawing largely on experiences in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, we suggest that the desired degree of cross-scale linkage depends on the primary aim of the scenario exercise. Loosely linked multiscale scenarios appear more appropriate when the primary aim is to engage in exploratory dialog with stakeholders. Tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios seem to work best when the main objective is to further our understanding of cross-scale interactions or to assess trade-offs between scales. The main disadvantages of tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios are that their development requires substantial time and financial resources, and that they often suffer loss of credibility at one or more scales. The reasons for developing multiscale scenarios and the expectations associated with doing so therefore need to be carefully evaluated when choosing the desired degree of cross-scale linkage in a particular scenario exercise.
KW - ecosystem services
KW - ia perspective
KW - global change
KW - europe
KW - conservation
KW - narratives
KW - ecology
M3 - Article
VL - 12
JO - Ecology and Society
JF - Ecology and Society
SN - 1708-3087
IS - 1
M1 - 17
ER -