Likely Ranges of Climate Change in Bolivia

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28 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Bolivia is facing numerous climate-related threats, ranging from water scarcity due to rapidly retreating glaciers in the Andes to a partial loss of the Amazon forest in the lowlands. To assess what changes in climate may be expected in the future, 35 global circulation models (GCMs) from the third and fifth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3/5) were analyzed for the Bolivian case. GCMs were validated against observed surface air temperature, precipitation, and incoming shortwave (SW) radiation for the period 1961–90. Weighted ensembles were developed, and climate change projections for five emission scenarios were assessed for 2070–99. GCMs revealed an overall cold, wet, and positive-SW-radiation bias and showed no substantial improvement from the CMIP3 to the CMIP5 ensemble for the Bolivian case. Models projected an increase in temperature (2.5°–5.9°C) and SW radiation (1%–5%), with seasonal and regional differences. In the lowlands, changes in annual rainfall remained uncertain for CMIP3 whereas CMIP5 GCMs were more inclined to project decreases (-9%). This pattern also applied to most of the Amazon basin, suggesting a higher risk of partial biomass loss for the CMIP5 ensemble. Both ensembles agreed on less rainfall (-19%) during drier months (June–August and September–November), with significant changes in interannual rainfall variability, but disagreed on changes during wetter months (January–March). In the Andes, CMIP3 GCMs tended toward less rainfall (-9%) whereas CMIP5 tended toward more (+20%) rainfall during parts of the wet season. The findings presented here may provide inputs for studies of climate change impact that assess how resilient human and natural systems are under different climate change scenarios.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1303-1317
JournalJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Volume52
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

Fingerprint

climate change
shortwave radiation
rainfall
CMIP
climate
wet season
glacier
surface temperature
air temperature
biomass
basin
temperature
water
loss

Keywords

  • south-america
  • change scenarios
  • altiplano
  • rainfall
  • models
  • andes
  • variability
  • circulation
  • amazon
  • trends

Cite this

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title = "Likely Ranges of Climate Change in Bolivia",
abstract = "Bolivia is facing numerous climate-related threats, ranging from water scarcity due to rapidly retreating glaciers in the Andes to a partial loss of the Amazon forest in the lowlands. To assess what changes in climate may be expected in the future, 35 global circulation models (GCMs) from the third and fifth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3/5) were analyzed for the Bolivian case. GCMs were validated against observed surface air temperature, precipitation, and incoming shortwave (SW) radiation for the period 1961–90. Weighted ensembles were developed, and climate change projections for five emission scenarios were assessed for 2070–99. GCMs revealed an overall cold, wet, and positive-SW-radiation bias and showed no substantial improvement from the CMIP3 to the CMIP5 ensemble for the Bolivian case. Models projected an increase in temperature (2.5°–5.9°C) and SW radiation (1{\%}–5{\%}), with seasonal and regional differences. In the lowlands, changes in annual rainfall remained uncertain for CMIP3 whereas CMIP5 GCMs were more inclined to project decreases (-9{\%}). This pattern also applied to most of the Amazon basin, suggesting a higher risk of partial biomass loss for the CMIP5 ensemble. Both ensembles agreed on less rainfall (-19{\%}) during drier months (June–August and September–November), with significant changes in interannual rainfall variability, but disagreed on changes during wetter months (January–March). In the Andes, CMIP3 GCMs tended toward less rainfall (-9{\%}) whereas CMIP5 tended toward more (+20{\%}) rainfall during parts of the wet season. The findings presented here may provide inputs for studies of climate change impact that assess how resilient human and natural systems are under different climate change scenarios.",
keywords = "south-america, change scenarios, altiplano, rainfall, models, andes, variability, circulation, amazon, trends",
author = "C. Seiler and R.W.A. Hutjes and P. Kabat",
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pages = "1303--1317",
journal = "Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology",
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}

Likely Ranges of Climate Change in Bolivia. / Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Kabat, P.

In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 52, No. 6, 2013, p. 1303-1317.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Likely Ranges of Climate Change in Bolivia

AU - Seiler, C.

AU - Hutjes, R.W.A.

AU - Kabat, P.

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - Bolivia is facing numerous climate-related threats, ranging from water scarcity due to rapidly retreating glaciers in the Andes to a partial loss of the Amazon forest in the lowlands. To assess what changes in climate may be expected in the future, 35 global circulation models (GCMs) from the third and fifth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3/5) were analyzed for the Bolivian case. GCMs were validated against observed surface air temperature, precipitation, and incoming shortwave (SW) radiation for the period 1961–90. Weighted ensembles were developed, and climate change projections for five emission scenarios were assessed for 2070–99. GCMs revealed an overall cold, wet, and positive-SW-radiation bias and showed no substantial improvement from the CMIP3 to the CMIP5 ensemble for the Bolivian case. Models projected an increase in temperature (2.5°–5.9°C) and SW radiation (1%–5%), with seasonal and regional differences. In the lowlands, changes in annual rainfall remained uncertain for CMIP3 whereas CMIP5 GCMs were more inclined to project decreases (-9%). This pattern also applied to most of the Amazon basin, suggesting a higher risk of partial biomass loss for the CMIP5 ensemble. Both ensembles agreed on less rainfall (-19%) during drier months (June–August and September–November), with significant changes in interannual rainfall variability, but disagreed on changes during wetter months (January–March). In the Andes, CMIP3 GCMs tended toward less rainfall (-9%) whereas CMIP5 tended toward more (+20%) rainfall during parts of the wet season. The findings presented here may provide inputs for studies of climate change impact that assess how resilient human and natural systems are under different climate change scenarios.

AB - Bolivia is facing numerous climate-related threats, ranging from water scarcity due to rapidly retreating glaciers in the Andes to a partial loss of the Amazon forest in the lowlands. To assess what changes in climate may be expected in the future, 35 global circulation models (GCMs) from the third and fifth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3/5) were analyzed for the Bolivian case. GCMs were validated against observed surface air temperature, precipitation, and incoming shortwave (SW) radiation for the period 1961–90. Weighted ensembles were developed, and climate change projections for five emission scenarios were assessed for 2070–99. GCMs revealed an overall cold, wet, and positive-SW-radiation bias and showed no substantial improvement from the CMIP3 to the CMIP5 ensemble for the Bolivian case. Models projected an increase in temperature (2.5°–5.9°C) and SW radiation (1%–5%), with seasonal and regional differences. In the lowlands, changes in annual rainfall remained uncertain for CMIP3 whereas CMIP5 GCMs were more inclined to project decreases (-9%). This pattern also applied to most of the Amazon basin, suggesting a higher risk of partial biomass loss for the CMIP5 ensemble. Both ensembles agreed on less rainfall (-19%) during drier months (June–August and September–November), with significant changes in interannual rainfall variability, but disagreed on changes during wetter months (January–March). In the Andes, CMIP3 GCMs tended toward less rainfall (-9%) whereas CMIP5 tended toward more (+20%) rainfall during parts of the wet season. The findings presented here may provide inputs for studies of climate change impact that assess how resilient human and natural systems are under different climate change scenarios.

KW - south-america

KW - change scenarios

KW - altiplano

KW - rainfall

KW - models

KW - andes

KW - variability

KW - circulation

KW - amazon

KW - trends

U2 - 10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0224.1

DO - 10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0224.1

M3 - Article

VL - 52

SP - 1303

EP - 1317

JO - Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

JF - Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

SN - 1558-8424

IS - 6

ER -