Large-scale scenario analysis in forest ecology and forest management

Large-scale scenario models have been developed to combine forest inventory data and forest growth models to explore impacts of changes in environmental conditions and consequences of changes in forest management, and to support decision-making and policy development. This article reviews some of the scenario studies done by EFI researchers in the past, and attempts to identify current limitations as well as future challenges in this field of research. Main emphasis so far has been on science-driven, technical scenario studies focussing on timber supply and carbon budget studies. While the need remains to improve the science-driven part of large-scale scenario analysis, there is an urgent need to extend the analysis to include value-driven aspects of forest management strategies, to arrive at consistent and comprehensive scenarios for possible future developments in European forestry that can be used in policy-making processes. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.