Klimaatverandering en de natuurdoelen: Uitdagingen, maar ook handvatten voor herstel

Climate change is already causing significant shifts in ecosystems, notably through changes in species composition. Long-term monitoring data from the Dutch Network for Ecological Monitoring (NEM) reveal a consistent pattern: species with a preference for warmer conditions are becoming more prevalent, while cold-adapted species are increasingly at risk. This trend is evident across several species groups, such as dragonflies, butterflies, and breeding birds, and is captured by indicators like the Community Temperature Index (CTI) and the Multi-Species Indicator (MSI). These developments have major implications for biodiversity conservation in the Netherlands. Many current conservation targets, including those defined under the Birds and Habitats Directives (VHR) and safeguarded through the Natura 2000 network, may become increasingly difficult or even impossible to achieve. Some target species may disappear due to climate-induced habitat unsuitability, while other—more heat-tolerant—species may arrive or expand. To respond effectively, climate adaptation strategies must focus on restoring ecological resilience. Key measures include enhancing habitat heterogeneity, improving landscape connectivity, and restoring natural hydrological regimes. For mobile species, functional ecological corridors are essential to enable range shifts in response to changing climatic conditions. Moreover, strategic spatial planning, including transboundary coordination, is necessary to support such adaptation efforts and safeguard biodiversity in the long term.