Key determinants of global land-use projections

Elke Stehfest, Willem Jan van Zeist, Hugo Valin, Petr Havlik, Alexander Popp, Page Kyle, Andrzej Tabeau, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Tomoko Hasegawa, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Shinichiro Fujimori, Florian Humpenöder, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Hans van Meijl, Keith Wiebe

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.

Original languageEnglish
Article number2166
Number of pages10
JournalNature Communications
Volume10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 May 2019

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land use
Conservation of Natural Resources
Land use
determinants
projection
Economics
Empirical Research
Food Supply
Climate
Population
economics
Sustainable development
farmlands
sensitivity
productivity
food
climate
Productivity

Cite this

Stehfest, E., van Zeist, W. J., Valin, H., Havlik, P., Popp, A., Kyle, P., ... Wiebe, K. (2019). Key determinants of global land-use projections. Nature Communications, 10, [2166]. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w
Stehfest, Elke ; van Zeist, Willem Jan ; Valin, Hugo ; Havlik, Petr ; Popp, Alexander ; Kyle, Page ; Tabeau, Andrzej ; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Bodirsky, Benjamin L. ; Calvin, Katherine ; Doelman, Jonathan C. ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; van Meijl, Hans ; Wiebe, Keith. / Key determinants of global land-use projections. In: Nature Communications. 2019 ; Vol. 10.
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abstract = "Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.",
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Stehfest, E, van Zeist, WJ, Valin, H, Havlik, P, Popp, A, Kyle, P, Tabeau, A, Mason-D’Croz, D, Hasegawa, T, Bodirsky, BL, Calvin, K, Doelman, JC, Fujimori, S, Humpenöder, F, Lotze-Campen, H, van Meijl, H & Wiebe, K 2019, 'Key determinants of global land-use projections' Nature Communications, vol. 10, 2166. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w

Key determinants of global land-use projections. / Stehfest, Elke; van Zeist, Willem Jan; Valin, Hugo; Havlik, Petr; Popp, Alexander; Kyle, Page; Tabeau, Andrzej; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Humpenöder, Florian; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; van Meijl, Hans; Wiebe, Keith.

In: Nature Communications, Vol. 10, 2166, 15.05.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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AU - Stehfest, Elke

AU - van Zeist, Willem Jan

AU - Valin, Hugo

AU - Havlik, Petr

AU - Popp, Alexander

AU - Kyle, Page

AU - Tabeau, Andrzej

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AU - Bodirsky, Benjamin L.

AU - Calvin, Katherine

AU - Doelman, Jonathan C.

AU - Fujimori, Shinichiro

AU - Humpenöder, Florian

AU - Lotze-Campen, Hermann

AU - van Meijl, Hans

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Stehfest E, van Zeist WJ, Valin H, Havlik P, Popp A, Kyle P et al. Key determinants of global land-use projections. Nature Communications. 2019 May 15;10. 2166. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w