Introducing municipal solid waste streams in a CGE framework: A step in the direction of circular economy analysis

Growing population and per capita consumption are expected to generate about 3.4 billion tons of waste by 2050. The reuse and recycling of waste reduces the need for landfill, dumping, and incineration, and the extraction of virgin inputs. Such a transition impacts climate change, virgin material providers, producers and consumers. To quantify the direct and indirect impacts of this transition on the economy and environment, we extend a CGE model by developing a method and database including municipal solid waste streams. The waste stream constitutes of five types of municipal solid waste, three types of waste collection services and four types of waste treatment sectors that produce commodities to substitute those made by virgin materials. The model also tracks emissions caused by different waste treatment alternatives. The relationship between consumption, waste generation and waste treatment makes it possible to analyze circular economy policies. A baseline application shows that worldwide waste generation and collection is expected to grow by 45% between 2020-2050. Other waste is expected to grow the most by 53%; food waste is projected to grow the least at 35%. Therefore, without waste management policies, more waste will be incinerated or landfilled, which in turn aggravates climate change.