interNationaL2120: Moving from nature based solutions scenarios in the Netherlands to international and LMIC contexts

In 2019 and 2023 Wageningen University & Research published future scenario reports, the first on how the Netherlands could look like from a nature-based solutions perspective, the second at the scale of Europe. In this study the two 2120 scenario reports are taken as a starting point for whether and how their approach and results can add value to nature positive futures work more broadly, and for LMIC country contexts. The introduction provides more background on the 2120 reports and the motivation and key questions for this study. Following this the framing NL2120 and EU2120 in the Nature Futures Framework section introduces the NFF, a broadly used heuristic tool developed by IPBES for guiding the design of nature positive futures. It is used as reference to determine whether and how the 2120 exercise and results could be applied in other contexts around the world. Then the historical drivers and future trends goes into more detail on broad-based drivers and trends for global warming (using CO2 as a proxy) and loss of biodiversity (looking respectively at genetic, species and ecosystem diversity), how they differ in richer and poorer parts of the world, and given this what some potential future trends are. Towards governing nature positive futures in different contexts then gives a brief overview of what existing nature-based activities and scenario exercises are already taking place in different parts of the world, including in LMICs, and how the 2120 approach could support these. The challenge of just transitions – balancing nature and human needs – suggests improved governance is needed. The conclusions and recommendations reflect on key points and propose next steps.