Integrated risk assessment of changing animal production systems in the Netherlands

Considerable momentum is building to change existing practices in the Dutch livestock sector. With approximately 14 goats, 123 cows, 374 pigs, 3196 chickens, and 501 humans per km2, animal production, residential areas and natural areas compete for space. Evidence of substantial impacts on human health and ecosystem integrity are mounting, suggesting non-sustainable developments. Programs to foster sustainability run for some years but recently the Dutch government was advised to increase the pace. The evidence of impacts are, however, scattered over different domains, and the existence of (policy) ‘silos’ prevent an integrated solution to current impacts. This study aims to provide a first attempt to describe the current impacts of the Dutch livestock sector, including infectious diseases spread and emerging zoonosis risks, carbon and nitrogen emissions, particulate matter and endotoxin emissions, antimicrobial resistance and odors. We consider this first overview as a baseline for comparison with future scenarios for changing animal production systems.