Improving WOFOST model to simulate winter wheat phenology in Europe

Evaluation and effects on yield

A. Ceglar*, R. van der Wijngaart, A. de Wit, R. Lecerf, H. Boogaard, L. Seguini, M. van den Berg, A. Toreti, M. Zampieri, D. Fumagalli, B. Baruth

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study describes and evaluates improvements to the MARS crop yield forecasting system (MCYFS) for winter soft wheat (Triticum aestivum) in Europe, based on the WOFOST crop simulation model, by introducing autumn sowing dates, realistic soil moisture initialization, adding vernalization requirements and photoperiodicity, and phenology calibration. Dataset of phenological observations complemented with regional cropping calendars across Europe is used. The calibration of thermal requirements for anthesis and maturity is done by pooling all available observations within European agro-environmental zones and minimizing an objective function that combines the differences between observed and simulated anthesis, maturity and harvest dates. Calibrated phenology results in substantial improvement in simulated dates of anthesis with respect to the original MCYFS simulations. The combined improvements to the system result in a physically more plausible spatial distribution of crop model indicators across Europe. Crop yield indicators point to better agreement with recorded national winter wheat yields with respect to the original MCYFS simulations, most pronounced in central, eastern and southern Europe. However, model skill remains low in large parts of western Europe, which may possibly be attributed to the impacts of wet conditions.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)168-180
JournalAgricultural Systems
Volume168
Early online date11 May 2018
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2019

Fingerprint

winter wheat
phenology
crop yield
crop models
flowering
calibration
photoperiodism
wet environmental conditions
vernalization
Southern European region
Eastern European region
harvest date
Western European region
sowing date
Central European region
simulation models
Triticum aestivum
soil water
spatial distribution
autumn

Keywords

  • Calibration
  • Crop yield forecasting
  • Europe
  • Phenology
  • Triticum aestivum
  • WOFOST

Cite this

Ceglar, A. ; van der Wijngaart, R. ; de Wit, A. ; Lecerf, R. ; Boogaard, H. ; Seguini, L. ; van den Berg, M. ; Toreti, A. ; Zampieri, M. ; Fumagalli, D. ; Baruth, B. / Improving WOFOST model to simulate winter wheat phenology in Europe : Evaluation and effects on yield. In: Agricultural Systems. 2019 ; Vol. 168. pp. 168-180.
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abstract = "This study describes and evaluates improvements to the MARS crop yield forecasting system (MCYFS) for winter soft wheat (Triticum aestivum) in Europe, based on the WOFOST crop simulation model, by introducing autumn sowing dates, realistic soil moisture initialization, adding vernalization requirements and photoperiodicity, and phenology calibration. Dataset of phenological observations complemented with regional cropping calendars across Europe is used. The calibration of thermal requirements for anthesis and maturity is done by pooling all available observations within European agro-environmental zones and minimizing an objective function that combines the differences between observed and simulated anthesis, maturity and harvest dates. Calibrated phenology results in substantial improvement in simulated dates of anthesis with respect to the original MCYFS simulations. The combined improvements to the system result in a physically more plausible spatial distribution of crop model indicators across Europe. Crop yield indicators point to better agreement with recorded national winter wheat yields with respect to the original MCYFS simulations, most pronounced in central, eastern and southern Europe. However, model skill remains low in large parts of western Europe, which may possibly be attributed to the impacts of wet conditions.",
keywords = "Calibration, Crop yield forecasting, Europe, Phenology, Triticum aestivum, WOFOST",
author = "A. Ceglar and {van der Wijngaart}, R. and {de Wit}, A. and R. Lecerf and H. Boogaard and L. Seguini and {van den Berg}, M. and A. Toreti and M. Zampieri and D. Fumagalli and B. Baruth",
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Ceglar, A, van der Wijngaart, R, de Wit, A, Lecerf, R, Boogaard, H, Seguini, L, van den Berg, M, Toreti, A, Zampieri, M, Fumagalli, D & Baruth, B 2019, 'Improving WOFOST model to simulate winter wheat phenology in Europe: Evaluation and effects on yield', Agricultural Systems, vol. 168, pp. 168-180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.05.002

Improving WOFOST model to simulate winter wheat phenology in Europe : Evaluation and effects on yield. / Ceglar, A.; van der Wijngaart, R.; de Wit, A.; Lecerf, R.; Boogaard, H.; Seguini, L.; van den Berg, M.; Toreti, A.; Zampieri, M.; Fumagalli, D.; Baruth, B.

In: Agricultural Systems, Vol. 168, 01.2019, p. 168-180.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Improving WOFOST model to simulate winter wheat phenology in Europe

T2 - Evaluation and effects on yield

AU - Ceglar, A.

AU - van der Wijngaart, R.

AU - de Wit, A.

AU - Lecerf, R.

AU - Boogaard, H.

AU - Seguini, L.

AU - van den Berg, M.

AU - Toreti, A.

AU - Zampieri, M.

AU - Fumagalli, D.

AU - Baruth, B.

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N2 - This study describes and evaluates improvements to the MARS crop yield forecasting system (MCYFS) for winter soft wheat (Triticum aestivum) in Europe, based on the WOFOST crop simulation model, by introducing autumn sowing dates, realistic soil moisture initialization, adding vernalization requirements and photoperiodicity, and phenology calibration. Dataset of phenological observations complemented with regional cropping calendars across Europe is used. The calibration of thermal requirements for anthesis and maturity is done by pooling all available observations within European agro-environmental zones and minimizing an objective function that combines the differences between observed and simulated anthesis, maturity and harvest dates. Calibrated phenology results in substantial improvement in simulated dates of anthesis with respect to the original MCYFS simulations. The combined improvements to the system result in a physically more plausible spatial distribution of crop model indicators across Europe. Crop yield indicators point to better agreement with recorded national winter wheat yields with respect to the original MCYFS simulations, most pronounced in central, eastern and southern Europe. However, model skill remains low in large parts of western Europe, which may possibly be attributed to the impacts of wet conditions.

AB - This study describes and evaluates improvements to the MARS crop yield forecasting system (MCYFS) for winter soft wheat (Triticum aestivum) in Europe, based on the WOFOST crop simulation model, by introducing autumn sowing dates, realistic soil moisture initialization, adding vernalization requirements and photoperiodicity, and phenology calibration. Dataset of phenological observations complemented with regional cropping calendars across Europe is used. The calibration of thermal requirements for anthesis and maturity is done by pooling all available observations within European agro-environmental zones and minimizing an objective function that combines the differences between observed and simulated anthesis, maturity and harvest dates. Calibrated phenology results in substantial improvement in simulated dates of anthesis with respect to the original MCYFS simulations. The combined improvements to the system result in a physically more plausible spatial distribution of crop model indicators across Europe. Crop yield indicators point to better agreement with recorded national winter wheat yields with respect to the original MCYFS simulations, most pronounced in central, eastern and southern Europe. However, model skill remains low in large parts of western Europe, which may possibly be attributed to the impacts of wet conditions.

KW - Calibration

KW - Crop yield forecasting

KW - Europe

KW - Phenology

KW - Triticum aestivum

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U2 - 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.05.002

DO - 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.05.002

M3 - Article

VL - 168

SP - 168

EP - 180

JO - Agricultural Systems

JF - Agricultural Systems

SN - 0308-521X

ER -