Abstract
This study describes and evaluates improvements to the MARS crop yield forecasting system (MCYFS) for winter soft wheat (Triticum aestivum) in Europe, based on the WOFOST crop simulation model, by introducing autumn sowing dates, realistic soil moisture initialization, adding vernalization requirements and photoperiodicity, and phenology calibration. Dataset of phenological observations complemented with regional cropping calendars across Europe is used. The calibration of thermal requirements for anthesis and maturity is done by pooling all available observations within European agro-environmental zones and minimizing an objective function that combines the differences between observed and simulated anthesis, maturity and harvest dates. Calibrated phenology results in substantial improvement in simulated dates of anthesis with respect to the original MCYFS simulations. The combined improvements to the system result in a physically more plausible spatial distribution of crop model indicators across Europe. Crop yield indicators point to better agreement with recorded national winter wheat yields with respect to the original MCYFS simulations, most pronounced in central, eastern and southern Europe. However, model skill remains low in large parts of western Europe, which may possibly be attributed to the impacts of wet conditions.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 168-180 |
| Journal | Agricultural Systems |
| Volume | 168 |
| Early online date | 11 May 2018 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Jan 2019 |
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Keywords
- Calibration
- Crop yield forecasting
- Europe
- Phenology
- Triticum aestivum
- WOFOST
Cite this
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Improving WOFOST model to simulate winter wheat phenology in Europe : Evaluation and effects on yield. / Ceglar, A.; van der Wijngaart, R.; de Wit, A.; Lecerf, R.; Boogaard, H.; Seguini, L.; van den Berg, M.; Toreti, A.; Zampieri, M.; Fumagalli, D.; Baruth, B.
In: Agricultural Systems, Vol. 168, 01.2019, p. 168-180.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Improving WOFOST model to simulate winter wheat phenology in Europe
T2 - Evaluation and effects on yield
AU - Ceglar, A.
AU - van der Wijngaart, R.
AU - de Wit, A.
AU - Lecerf, R.
AU - Boogaard, H.
AU - Seguini, L.
AU - van den Berg, M.
AU - Toreti, A.
AU - Zampieri, M.
AU - Fumagalli, D.
AU - Baruth, B.
PY - 2019/1
Y1 - 2019/1
N2 - This study describes and evaluates improvements to the MARS crop yield forecasting system (MCYFS) for winter soft wheat (Triticum aestivum) in Europe, based on the WOFOST crop simulation model, by introducing autumn sowing dates, realistic soil moisture initialization, adding vernalization requirements and photoperiodicity, and phenology calibration. Dataset of phenological observations complemented with regional cropping calendars across Europe is used. The calibration of thermal requirements for anthesis and maturity is done by pooling all available observations within European agro-environmental zones and minimizing an objective function that combines the differences between observed and simulated anthesis, maturity and harvest dates. Calibrated phenology results in substantial improvement in simulated dates of anthesis with respect to the original MCYFS simulations. The combined improvements to the system result in a physically more plausible spatial distribution of crop model indicators across Europe. Crop yield indicators point to better agreement with recorded national winter wheat yields with respect to the original MCYFS simulations, most pronounced in central, eastern and southern Europe. However, model skill remains low in large parts of western Europe, which may possibly be attributed to the impacts of wet conditions.
AB - This study describes and evaluates improvements to the MARS crop yield forecasting system (MCYFS) for winter soft wheat (Triticum aestivum) in Europe, based on the WOFOST crop simulation model, by introducing autumn sowing dates, realistic soil moisture initialization, adding vernalization requirements and photoperiodicity, and phenology calibration. Dataset of phenological observations complemented with regional cropping calendars across Europe is used. The calibration of thermal requirements for anthesis and maturity is done by pooling all available observations within European agro-environmental zones and minimizing an objective function that combines the differences between observed and simulated anthesis, maturity and harvest dates. Calibrated phenology results in substantial improvement in simulated dates of anthesis with respect to the original MCYFS simulations. The combined improvements to the system result in a physically more plausible spatial distribution of crop model indicators across Europe. Crop yield indicators point to better agreement with recorded national winter wheat yields with respect to the original MCYFS simulations, most pronounced in central, eastern and southern Europe. However, model skill remains low in large parts of western Europe, which may possibly be attributed to the impacts of wet conditions.
KW - Calibration
KW - Crop yield forecasting
KW - Europe
KW - Phenology
KW - Triticum aestivum
KW - WOFOST
U2 - 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.05.002
DO - 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.05.002
M3 - Article
VL - 168
SP - 168
EP - 180
JO - Agricultural Systems
JF - Agricultural Systems
SN - 0308-521X
ER -