Improving ecophysiological simulation models to predict the impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on crop productivity

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Abstract

Background - Process-based ecophysiological crop models are pivotal in assessing responses of crop productivity and designing strategies of adaptation to climate change. Most existing crop models generally over-estimate the effect of elevated atmospheric [CO2], despite decades of experimental research on crop growth response to [CO2]. Analysis - A review of the literature indicates that the quantitative relationships for a number of traits, once expressed as a function of internal plant nitrogen status, are altered little by the elevated [CO2]. A model incorporating these nitrogen-based functional relationships and mechanisms simulated photosynthetic acclimation to elevated [CO2], thereby reducing the chance of over-estimating crop response to [CO2]. Robust crop models to have small parameterization requirements and yet generate phenotypic plasticity under changing environmental conditions need to capture the carbon–nitrogen interactions during crop growth. Conclusions - The performance of the improved models depends little on the type of the experimental facilities used to obtain data for parameterization, and allows accurate projections of the impact of elevated [CO2] and other climatic variables on crop productivity.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)465-475
JournalAnnals of Botany
Volume112
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

Keywords

  • open-top chambers
  • leaf-area index
  • carbon-dioxide enrichment
  • climate-change impacts
  • open-air conditions
  • c-3 plants
  • photosynthetic capacity
  • stomatal conductance
  • winter-wheat
  • maintenance respiration

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