Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Agricultural Systems in Eastern Africa

This assessment aims to project how changes in climate might affect smallholder farmers through impacts on productivity and profitability of agricultural systems that are widely adopted in Eastern Africa, using protocols and methods developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The assessment is designed to capture the complexity and diversity that exists in the smallholder-farming systems, including the different ways in which the system is managed. The paper presents the results of the integrated assessment carried out on smallholder farming systems in different agro-ecological zones of Embu County in Kenya and explores their possible impacts on income, poverty and food security. It also discusses some of the available options that can be used to effectively mitigate the negative impacts while capitalizing on the opportunities created.