Hydrological model of the Lower Biebrza Basin; using the model as a management tool

The main objective of the research is the setup of a groundwater model which can be used for predicting consequences of different land use management options. The constructed Lower Biebrza model is based on the SIMGRO model (SIMulation of GROundwater and surface water levels), a distributed physically-based model that simulates groundwater flow and surface water levels. Two different scenarios were modeled. The first scenario considered the natural vegetation succession of the peatlands as a serious threat. The second scenario considers a man-made approach, and was designed to check which changes in groundwater levels could be expected by blocking the existing drainage system on the Biebrza riverbanks. The study shows that, with regard to the impact on wetland conditions, the first scenario leads to negative changes in simulated groundwater levels while the second scenario leads to positive changes. The research clearly showed that an integrated hydrological approach, by using forecasting methodology, gives results that can be used in the evaluation of water management options. These results can also be the basis of a more comprehensive and profound study that takes into account other factors such as constraints and costs of the different measures and public participation in managing the area