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How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather

  • Timo Kelder*
  • , Dorothy Heinrich
  • , Lisette Klok
  • , Vikki Thompson
  • , Henrique M.D. Goulart
  • , Ed Hawkins
  • , Louise J. Slater
  • , Laura Suarez-Gutierrez
  • , Robert L. Wilby
  • , Erin Coughlan de Perez
  • , Elisabeth M. Stephens
  • , Stephen Burt
  • , Bart van den Hurk
  • , Hylke de Vries
  • , Karin van der Wiel
  • , E.L.F. Schipper
  • , Antonio Carmona Baéz
  • , Ellen van Bueren
  • , Erich M. Fischer
  • *Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather.

Original languageEnglish
Article number2382
Number of pages15
JournalNature Communications
Volume16
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2025
Externally publishedYes

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

  1. SDG 13 - Climate Action
    SDG 13 Climate Action

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