How much multilateralism do we need? Effectiveness of unilateral agricultural mitigation efforts in the global context

Stefan Frank*, Petr Havlík, Andrzej Tabeau, Peter Witzke, Esther Boere, Mariia Bogonos, Andre Deppermann, Michiel van Dijk, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Charlotte Janssens, Monika Kesting, Hans van Meijl, Ignacio Pérez-Domínguez, Hugo Valin

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Achieving climate neutrality in the European Union (EU) by 2050 will require substantial efforts across all economic sectors, including agriculture. At the same time, an ambitious unilateral EU agricultural mitigation policy is likely to have adverse effects on the sector and may have limited efficiency at global scale due to emission leakage to non-EU regions. To analyse the competitiveness of the EU's agricultural sector and potential non-CO2 emission leakage conditional on mitigation efforts outside the EU, we apply three economic agricultural sector models. We find that an ambitious unilateral EU mitigation policy in line with efforts needed to achieve the 1.5 C target globally strongly affects EU ruminant production and trade balance. However, since EU farmers rank among the most greenhouse gas efficient producers worldwide, if the rest of the world were to start pursuing agricultural mitigation efforts too, economic impacts of an ambitious domestic mitigation policy get buffered and EU livestock producers could even start to benefit from a globally coordinated mitigation policy.

Original languageEnglish
Article number104038
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Volume16
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2021

Keywords

  • agricultural mitigation
  • agricultural sector modeling
  • emission leakage
  • European Union
  • livestock
  • mitigation policy

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'How much multilateralism do we need? Effectiveness of unilateral agricultural mitigation efforts in the global context'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this