Heat wave risk assessment and mapping in urban areas: case study for a midsized Central European city, Novi Sad (Serbia)

Stevan Savić*, Vladimir Marković, Ivan Šećerov, Dragoslav Pavić, Daniela Arsenović, Dragan Milošević, Dragan Dolinaj, Imre Nagy, Milana Pantelić

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

51 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Risk assessment and mapping methodologies for heat waves as frequently occurring hazards in central and southeastern Europe were applied in this study, and the impact of heat waves on the mortality of urban populations was determined as part of the assessment. The methodology for conducting the heat wave risk assessment is based on European Commission’s Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Mapping. The Novi Sad (Serbia) urban area was studied during summer 2015, which was one of the hottest summers in the last few decades. In situ air temperature measurements from urban stations and mortality of urban populations were used. Nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) intensity values between the various built-up zones and natural surrounding areas were used for the hazard level calculation. Temperature data from 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. were used because during the night, the UHI intensity reached its maximum values. The average daily number of deaths by LCZs was used to define the impact level of the vulnerability index. Calculations for both hazard levels were completed during two intensive heat waves (in July and August 2015) when it was expected that there may be a high level of risk. The results and maps show that the urban area is complex, and the heat wave risk on the population is not uniform. The most densely built-up areas (LCZs 2, 5 and 6) have very high or high risk values that are influenced by a higher rate of mortality. The obtained results and maps can be used by local authorities to prevent and mitigate climate-related hazards, for medical institutions as well as urban planners and for ancillary local, regional or national services. According to these results, the local authorities could define hot spots where they can place medical and rescue teams and install points with water supplies, etc.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)891-911
Number of pages21
JournalNatural Hazards
Volume91
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 13 Jan 2018
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Air temperature
  • Heat wave
  • Human mortality
  • Local climate zones
  • Novi Sad
  • Risk assessment

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