Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030: Can emissions peak before 2030?

Michel den Elzen, Hanna Fekete, Niklas Höhne, Annemiek Admiraal, Nicklas Forsell, A.F. Hof, J.G.J. Olivier, Mark Roelfsema, Heleen van Soest

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Abstract

In June 2015, China announced its post-2020 reduction targets, its central element being the intention to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 or earlier. China has implemented several policies to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study provides emission projections for China up to 2030 given current policies and a selected set of enhanced policies, and compares the results with projected CO2 emission trajectories that are consistent with the announced target for 2030. The projections are based on existing scenarios and energy system and land use model calculations. We project that the 2030 CO2 emission level consistent with a peak in CO2 emissions by 2030 ranges from 11.3 to 11.8 GtCO2. The corresponding total GHG emission level ranges from 13.5 to 14.0 GtCO2e in 2030. Current policies are likely not to be sufficient to achieve the 2030 targets, as our projected total GHG emission level under current policies ranges from 14.7 to 15.4 GtCO2e by 2030. However, an illustrative set of enhancement policy measures, all of which are related to national priorities, leads to projected GHG emission levels from 13.1 to 13.7 GtCO2e by 2030 - and thus below the levels necessary for peaking CO2 emissions before 2030.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)224-236
JournalEnergy Policy
Volume89
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016

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Gas emissions
Greenhouse gases
greenhouse gas
Land use
Trajectories
policy
trajectory
land use

Keywords

  • Climate agreement
  • National climate and energy policies
  • Renewable targets

Cite this

den Elzen, Michel ; Fekete, Hanna ; Höhne, Niklas ; Admiraal, Annemiek ; Forsell, Nicklas ; Hof, A.F. ; Olivier, J.G.J. ; Roelfsema, Mark ; van Soest, Heleen. / Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030 : Can emissions peak before 2030?. In: Energy Policy. 2016 ; Vol. 89. pp. 224-236.
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title = "Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030: Can emissions peak before 2030?",
abstract = "In June 2015, China announced its post-2020 reduction targets, its central element being the intention to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 or earlier. China has implemented several policies to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study provides emission projections for China up to 2030 given current policies and a selected set of enhanced policies, and compares the results with projected CO2 emission trajectories that are consistent with the announced target for 2030. The projections are based on existing scenarios and energy system and land use model calculations. We project that the 2030 CO2 emission level consistent with a peak in CO2 emissions by 2030 ranges from 11.3 to 11.8 GtCO2. The corresponding total GHG emission level ranges from 13.5 to 14.0 GtCO2e in 2030. Current policies are likely not to be sufficient to achieve the 2030 targets, as our projected total GHG emission level under current policies ranges from 14.7 to 15.4 GtCO2e by 2030. However, an illustrative set of enhancement policy measures, all of which are related to national priorities, leads to projected GHG emission levels from 13.1 to 13.7 GtCO2e by 2030 - and thus below the levels necessary for peaking CO2 emissions before 2030.",
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den Elzen, M, Fekete, H, Höhne, N, Admiraal, A, Forsell, N, Hof, AF, Olivier, JGJ, Roelfsema, M & van Soest, H 2016, 'Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030: Can emissions peak before 2030?' Energy Policy, vol. 89, pp. 224-236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.11.030

Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030 : Can emissions peak before 2030? / den Elzen, Michel; Fekete, Hanna; Höhne, Niklas; Admiraal, Annemiek; Forsell, Nicklas; Hof, A.F.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Roelfsema, Mark; van Soest, Heleen.

In: Energy Policy, Vol. 89, 2016, p. 224-236.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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T1 - Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030

T2 - Can emissions peak before 2030?

AU - den Elzen, Michel

AU - Fekete, Hanna

AU - Höhne, Niklas

AU - Admiraal, Annemiek

AU - Forsell, Nicklas

AU - Hof, A.F.

AU - Olivier, J.G.J.

AU - Roelfsema, Mark

AU - van Soest, Heleen

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AB - In June 2015, China announced its post-2020 reduction targets, its central element being the intention to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 or earlier. China has implemented several policies to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study provides emission projections for China up to 2030 given current policies and a selected set of enhanced policies, and compares the results with projected CO2 emission trajectories that are consistent with the announced target for 2030. The projections are based on existing scenarios and energy system and land use model calculations. We project that the 2030 CO2 emission level consistent with a peak in CO2 emissions by 2030 ranges from 11.3 to 11.8 GtCO2. The corresponding total GHG emission level ranges from 13.5 to 14.0 GtCO2e in 2030. Current policies are likely not to be sufficient to achieve the 2030 targets, as our projected total GHG emission level under current policies ranges from 14.7 to 15.4 GtCO2e by 2030. However, an illustrative set of enhancement policy measures, all of which are related to national priorities, leads to projected GHG emission levels from 13.1 to 13.7 GtCO2e by 2030 - and thus below the levels necessary for peaking CO2 emissions before 2030.

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JO - Energy Policy

JF - Energy Policy

SN - 0301-4215

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