Grasping the water, energy, and food security nexus in the local context: Case study: Karawang Regency, Indonesia

Despite an abundance in natural and human resources, Indonesia has not been able to
significantly improve the level of water, energy, and food (WEF) security. Challenges in
achieving WEF security targets mostly relate to resource mismanagement, lack of
coordination, authority imbalance among sectors, and overlapping roles and
responsibility among levels of government. The immature process of the decentralization
has made these challenges even more complex; it is not easy to unify the vision of local
governments (i.e. 34 provinces, 416 regencies, 98 cities) with the Regional Head who is
elected every 5 years and sometimes brings different goals and development approaches.

The lack of information, awareness, coordination and a common framework to bridge the
gaps between national and local governments, jeopardizes the attainment of WEF security
targets which have been set in the national long-term planning (RPJPN) and mid-term
planning (RPJMN). Unfortunately, this complex issue has not received the attention it
deserves, from a scientific perspective nor from a practical implementation point of view
such as through laws, policies and planning processes.

This research addresses these knowledge and implementation gaps by analysing the
interlinkages among variables in the WEF system using the nexus approach which
integrates management and governance across sectors and scales. The main objective of
this research is to grasp the WEF security nexus in the local context and to evaluate the
implications of planned local interventions in WEF sectors by developing a conceptual
and quantitative analysis framework and employing system dynamics modelling through
a stakeholder engagement and co-development process. The Karawang Regency in
Indonesia is chosen as an illustrative case study as it represents all challenges and
variables at the local level of WEF security nexus.

The first part of this study identifies knowledge gaps and common critiques on the WEF
nexus framework that have emerged since the concept was proposed. It analyses current
improvements of the WEF nexus concept, applications and impacts during the period of
2012-2020. By reviewing 10 existing WEF nexus frameworks, several gaps and
omissions as well as their possible improvements are identified. Four principles that must
be of serious consideration in developing the future WEF nexus framework and
improving the WEF nexus-related studies are proposed, i.e. to make them more
understandable, to make them adaptable to many diverse situations, to ensure reliable and
valid data, and to be applicable across scales. The perspective of “from local to global”
and locally-based WEF resource management are also suggested to ensure that WEF
security can be achieved sustainably in local communities and they will help towards
national and global targets.

Secondly, several strategies and their practical implementation for WEF-related sectors
in the study area are formulated using the composite method of Location Quotient (LQ)
and Competitive Position (CP). This method assesses the agglomeration level and growth
potential in each WEF sector, locating them in a four-quadrant matrix. Quadrant I,
signifying the advantaged cluster, contains 1 sector (energy-related sector); quadrant II,
signifying the potential cluster contains 1 sector (water-related sector) and 2 sub-sectors
(estate & horticulture crops and water supply sub-sectors); none of sector in quadrant III
or capable cluster, while 1 sector (food-related sector) and 4 sub-sectors (food crops,
electricity, livestock, and fishery sub-sectors) fall in quadrant IV, the disadvantaged
cluster. The analysis shows that the general characteristics of WEF-related sectors in a
region can be clearly distinguished based on its main economic development focus. This
preliminary economic-based evaluation gives a better understanding and more
comprehensive insights for policy-makers and other stakeholders, although the clear
interrelation among variables and sectors is not assessed at this stage of analysis.

The third set of results shows that participatory or group model building is beneficial in
assisting local stakeholders to grasp the complexity of the WEF security system. The
group model building approach covers all major internal and external factors and drivers,
including possible feedback mechanisms and key variables to be further analysed. A
qualitative Karawang WEF security (K-WEFS) model is established with stakeholders,
and is composed of six sub-models with water, energy and food sectors as internal factors
and population, economy and ecosystem services as external drivers. The collaborative
action plan, using system dynamics analysis and group model building, not only can be
implemented in WEF sectors but also other development planning and policy-making
process such as infrastructure, trade and services, monetary, transportation etc.

Fourthly, building on the qualitative K-WEFS model, a quantitative stock-flow diagram
(SFD) is developed. By employing STELLA® professional software, three planned
policy interventions in WEF-related sectors are modelled in an integrated way. The
impacts on the available resources per person (APP) and self-sufficiency levels (SSL) of
resources are analysed in four scenarios, including business as usual and several
combinations of planned interventions. Implications are based on model simulation, while
possible practical actions are derived from both model simulation and other
considerations, such as local planning ambitions, national programs, local experts and
modeller’s opinion. Several potentially unanticipated and indirect impacts of policy
interventions are also highlighted in this quantitative simulation.

Results and findings in this study, derived from the K-WEFS nexus framework are
expected to assist the local planner and decision-makers to deal with challenges in WEF
resource management by making trade-offs explicit, building synergies among WEF related sectors and eventually improving the WEF security target’s achievement.