Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

B. Liu, P. Martre, F. Ewert, J.R. Porter, A.J. Challinor, G. Muller, A.C. Ruane, K. Waha, Peter J. Thorburn, P.K. Aggarwal, M. Ahmed, Juraj Balkovic, B. Basso, C. Biernath, M. Bindi, D. Cammarano, Giacomo De Sanctis, B. Dumont, M. Espadafor, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei & 37 others Roberto Ferrise, M. Garcia-Vila, S. Gayler, Y. Gao, H. Horan, G. Hoogenboom, Roberto C. Izaurralde, C.D. Jones, Belay T. Kassie, K.C. Kersebaum, C. Klein, A.K. Koehler, Andrea Maiorano, Sara Minoli, M. Montesino San Martin, S.N. Kumar, C. Nendel, G.J. O'Leary, T. Palosuo, E. Priesack, D. Ripoche, R.P. Rötter, M.A. Semenov, Claudio Stockle, T. Streck, I. Supit, F. Tao, M. van der Velde, D. Wallach, E. Wang, H. Webber, J. Wolf, L. Xiao, Z. Zhang, Z. Zhao, Y. Zhu, S. Asseng

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Abstract

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5°C and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5 °C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0 °C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer -India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production are therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.
LanguageEnglish
Pages1428-1444
JournalGlobal Change Biology
Volume25
Issue number4
Early online date7 Dec 2018
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2019

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Liu, B., Martre, P., Ewert, F., Porter, J. R., Challinor, A. J., Muller, G., ... Asseng, S. (2019). Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming. Global Change Biology, 25(4), 1428-1444. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14542
Liu, B. ; Martre, P. ; Ewert, F. ; Porter, J.R. ; Challinor, A.J. ; Muller, G. ; Ruane, A.C. ; Waha, K. ; Thorburn, Peter J. ; Aggarwal, P.K. ; Ahmed, M. ; Balkovic, Juraj ; Basso, B. ; Biernath, C. ; Bindi, M. ; Cammarano, D. ; De Sanctis, Giacomo ; Dumont, B. ; Espadafor, M. ; Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan ; Ferrise, Roberto ; Garcia-Vila, M. ; Gayler, S. ; Gao, Y. ; Horan, H. ; Hoogenboom, G. ; Izaurralde, Roberto C. ; Jones, C.D. ; Kassie, Belay T. ; Kersebaum, K.C. ; Klein, C. ; Koehler, A.K. ; Maiorano, Andrea ; Minoli, Sara ; Montesino San Martin, M. ; Kumar, S.N. ; Nendel, C. ; O'Leary, G.J. ; Palosuo, T. ; Priesack, E. ; Ripoche, D. ; Rötter, R.P. ; Semenov, M.A. ; Stockle, Claudio ; Streck, T. ; Supit, I. ; Tao, F. ; van der Velde, M. ; Wallach, D. ; Wang, E. ; Webber, H. ; Wolf, J. ; Xiao, L. ; Zhang, Z. ; Zhao, Z. ; Zhu, Y. ; Asseng, S. / Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming. In: Global Change Biology. 2019 ; Vol. 25, No. 4. pp. 1428-1444.
@article{55e23a8263ab4cbf835d454a32fd5f3f,
title = "Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming",
abstract = "Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5°C and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3{\%} to 7.0{\%} under the 1.5 °C scenario and -2.4{\%} to 10.5{\%} under the 2.0 °C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer -India, which supplies more than 14{\%} of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production are therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.",
author = "B. Liu and P. Martre and F. Ewert and J.R. Porter and A.J. Challinor and G. Muller and A.C. Ruane and K. Waha and Thorburn, {Peter J.} and P.K. Aggarwal and M. Ahmed and Juraj Balkovic and B. Basso and C. Biernath and M. Bindi and D. Cammarano and {De Sanctis}, Giacomo and B. Dumont and M. Espadafor and {Eyshi Rezaei}, Ehsan and Roberto Ferrise and M. Garcia-Vila and S. Gayler and Y. Gao and H. Horan and G. Hoogenboom and Izaurralde, {Roberto C.} and C.D. Jones and Kassie, {Belay T.} and K.C. Kersebaum and C. Klein and A.K. Koehler and Andrea Maiorano and Sara Minoli and {Montesino San Martin}, M. and S.N. Kumar and C. Nendel and G.J. O'Leary and T. Palosuo and E. Priesack and D. Ripoche and R.P. R{\"o}tter and M.A. Semenov and Claudio Stockle and T. Streck and I. Supit and F. Tao and {van der Velde}, M. and D. Wallach and E. Wang and H. Webber and J. Wolf and L. Xiao and Z. Zhang and Z. Zhao and Y. Zhu and S. Asseng",
year = "2019",
month = "4",
doi = "10.1111/gcb.14542",
language = "English",
volume = "25",
pages = "1428--1444",
journal = "Global Change Biology",
issn = "1354-1013",
publisher = "Wiley",
number = "4",

}

Liu, B, Martre, P, Ewert, F, Porter, JR, Challinor, AJ, Muller, G, Ruane, AC, Waha, K, Thorburn, PJ, Aggarwal, PK, Ahmed, M, Balkovic, J, Basso, B, Biernath, C, Bindi, M, Cammarano, D, De Sanctis, G, Dumont, B, Espadafor, M, Eyshi Rezaei, E, Ferrise, R, Garcia-Vila, M, Gayler, S, Gao, Y, Horan, H, Hoogenboom, G, Izaurralde, RC, Jones, CD, Kassie, BT, Kersebaum, KC, Klein, C, Koehler, AK, Maiorano, A, Minoli, S, Montesino San Martin, M, Kumar, SN, Nendel, C, O'Leary, GJ, Palosuo, T, Priesack, E, Ripoche, D, Rötter, RP, Semenov, MA, Stockle, C, Streck, T, Supit, I, Tao, F, van der Velde, M, Wallach, D, Wang, E, Webber, H, Wolf, J, Xiao, L, Zhang, Z, Zhao, Z, Zhu, Y & Asseng, S 2019, 'Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming', Global Change Biology, vol. 25, no. 4, pp. 1428-1444. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14542

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming. / Liu, B.; Martre, P.; Ewert, F.; Porter, J.R.; Challinor, A.J.; Muller, G.; Ruane, A.C.; Waha, K.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Ahmed, M.; Balkovic, Juraj; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Bindi, M.; Cammarano, D.; De Sanctis, Giacomo; Dumont, B.; Espadafor, M.; Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan; Ferrise, Roberto; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Gao, Y.; Horan, H.; Hoogenboom, G.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jones, C.D. ; Kassie, Belay T.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Klein, C.; Koehler, A.K.; Maiorano, Andrea; Minoli, Sara; Montesino San Martin, M.; Kumar, S.N.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.J.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Rötter, R.P.; Semenov, M.A.; Stockle, Claudio; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; van der Velde, M.; Wallach, D.; Wang, E.; Webber, H.; Wolf, J.; Xiao, L.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y.; Asseng, S.

In: Global Change Biology, Vol. 25, No. 4, 04.2019, p. 1428-1444.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

AU - Liu, B.

AU - Martre, P.

AU - Ewert, F.

AU - Porter, J.R.

AU - Challinor, A.J.

AU - Muller, G.

AU - Ruane, A.C.

AU - Waha, K.

AU - Thorburn, Peter J.

AU - Aggarwal, P.K.

AU - Ahmed, M.

AU - Balkovic, Juraj

AU - Basso, B.

AU - Biernath, C.

AU - Bindi, M.

AU - Cammarano, D.

AU - De Sanctis, Giacomo

AU - Dumont, B.

AU - Espadafor, M.

AU - Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan

AU - Ferrise, Roberto

AU - Garcia-Vila, M.

AU - Gayler, S.

AU - Gao, Y.

AU - Horan, H.

AU - Hoogenboom, G.

AU - Izaurralde, Roberto C.

AU - Jones, C.D.

AU - Kassie, Belay T.

AU - Kersebaum, K.C.

AU - Klein, C.

AU - Koehler, A.K.

AU - Maiorano, Andrea

AU - Minoli, Sara

AU - Montesino San Martin, M.

AU - Kumar, S.N.

AU - Nendel, C.

AU - O'Leary, G.J.

AU - Palosuo, T.

AU - Priesack, E.

AU - Ripoche, D.

AU - Rötter, R.P.

AU - Semenov, M.A.

AU - Stockle, Claudio

AU - Streck, T.

AU - Supit, I.

AU - Tao, F.

AU - van der Velde, M.

AU - Wallach, D.

AU - Wang, E.

AU - Webber, H.

AU - Wolf, J.

AU - Xiao, L.

AU - Zhang, Z.

AU - Zhao, Z.

AU - Zhu, Y.

AU - Asseng, S.

PY - 2019/4

Y1 - 2019/4

N2 - Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5°C and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5 °C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0 °C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer -India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production are therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.

AB - Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5°C and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5 °C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0 °C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer -India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production are therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.

U2 - 10.1111/gcb.14542

DO - 10.1111/gcb.14542

M3 - Article

VL - 25

SP - 1428

EP - 1444

JO - Global Change Biology

T2 - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

SN - 1354-1013

IS - 4

ER -

Liu B, Martre P, Ewert F, Porter JR, Challinor AJ, Muller G et al. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming. Global Change Biology. 2019 Apr;25(4):1428-1444. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14542