Global impact of multinational biofuel mandates on land use, feedstock prices, international trade and land-use greenhouse gas emissions

Martin Banse*, Franziska Junker, Anne Gerdien Prins, Elke Stehfest, Andrzej Tabeau, Geert Woltjer, Hans Van Meijl

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This article analyzes the consequences of enhanced biofuel demand in regions and countries of the world that have announced plans to implement or expand on biofuel policies. The analysis considers not only mandatory blending targets for transportation fuels, but also voluntary ones. The chosen quantitative modeling approach is two-fold: it combines a multi-sectoral economic model (LEITAP) with a spatial bio-physical land use model (IMAGE 2.4). This paper adds to existing research by considering biofuel policies in the EU, the US and various other countries with considerable agricultural production and trade, such as Brazil, India and China. Moreover, the combination of the two modeling systems allows for the observation of changes in both economic and bio-physical indicators. The results show that some indicators with high political relevance, such as agricultural prices and greenhouse gas emissions from land use, do not necessarily react proportionally to increasing demand for agricultural products from the biofuel sector. This finding should be considered when designing biofuel policies because these indicators are directly relevant for food security and climate change.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)59-72
JournalLandbauforschung : wissenschaftliche Mitteilungen der Forschungsanstalt für Landwirtschaft Völkenrode
Volume64
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

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energy policy
international trade
greenhouse gas emissions
feedstocks
biofuels
land use
econometric models
agricultural products
food security
climate change
agriculture
India
economics
Brazil
China

Keywords

  • Biofuel mandates
  • Greenhouse gas emissions
  • Land use changes

Cite this

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title = "Global impact of multinational biofuel mandates on land use, feedstock prices, international trade and land-use greenhouse gas emissions",
abstract = "This article analyzes the consequences of enhanced biofuel demand in regions and countries of the world that have announced plans to implement or expand on biofuel policies. The analysis considers not only mandatory blending targets for transportation fuels, but also voluntary ones. The chosen quantitative modeling approach is two-fold: it combines a multi-sectoral economic model (LEITAP) with a spatial bio-physical land use model (IMAGE 2.4). This paper adds to existing research by considering biofuel policies in the EU, the US and various other countries with considerable agricultural production and trade, such as Brazil, India and China. Moreover, the combination of the two modeling systems allows for the observation of changes in both economic and bio-physical indicators. The results show that some indicators with high political relevance, such as agricultural prices and greenhouse gas emissions from land use, do not necessarily react proportionally to increasing demand for agricultural products from the biofuel sector. This finding should be considered when designing biofuel policies because these indicators are directly relevant for food security and climate change.",
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AU - Banse, Martin

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AU - Prins, Anne Gerdien

AU - Stehfest, Elke

AU - Tabeau, Andrzej

AU - Woltjer, Geert

AU - Van Meijl, Hans

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AB - This article analyzes the consequences of enhanced biofuel demand in regions and countries of the world that have announced plans to implement or expand on biofuel policies. The analysis considers not only mandatory blending targets for transportation fuels, but also voluntary ones. The chosen quantitative modeling approach is two-fold: it combines a multi-sectoral economic model (LEITAP) with a spatial bio-physical land use model (IMAGE 2.4). This paper adds to existing research by considering biofuel policies in the EU, the US and various other countries with considerable agricultural production and trade, such as Brazil, India and China. Moreover, the combination of the two modeling systems allows for the observation of changes in both economic and bio-physical indicators. The results show that some indicators with high political relevance, such as agricultural prices and greenhouse gas emissions from land use, do not necessarily react proportionally to increasing demand for agricultural products from the biofuel sector. This finding should be considered when designing biofuel policies because these indicators are directly relevant for food security and climate change.

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